Eternity Pillars of Eternity 2 Pre-Announcement Thread

[Roguey]

I hope with PoE 2 they do a proper after the game expansion.

Feargus said they will never do another traditional expansion again, it's nothing but DLC from here on out.

 

[Fairfax]

The Witcher 3's expansion gave me hope that RPG expansions aren't over, but they're extremely rare right now.

To be fair, an expansion is quite the risk unless you're certain more-of-the-same will sell. If you can't/won't do an expansion, the FNV format is the best. More room for experimentation and more variety overall. 4 very different DLCs, and the vast majority liked at least 2, I think.

 

[Fry]

Maybe they'll go full Paradox with that shit. $4.99 for clothing packs. $10.99 for features that should have been in the base game.

Kewl.

 

[Excidium II]

I'll take FNV-style DLCs over a middle of the game expansion I guess.

 

[Roguey]

I'll take FNV-style DLCs over a middle of the game expansion I guess.

All the New Vegas DLCs are midgame though if you don't want to deal with clumsy level scaling (especially important with OWB). Honest Hearts - 10 Old World Blues - 15 Dead Money - 20 Lonesome Road - 25.

 

[Urthor]

I remember Josh saying that if oyu want to do post release paid content right you have to push it out early af. Under that logic, expansions are probably not the thing, the "best" thing revenue wise is if Obsidian got enough brand buy in by making an awesome game that they can go full AAA with the DLC, do a small DLC followed by big ones. Considering Tyranny's lack of sales at this point, isometric RTwP as a genre probably needs that kind of monetisation to survive long term, similar to Total War.

 

[HoboForEternity]

How do you know tyranny is underperforming sales wise? We dont know the sale expectation, but it shoukd reach 100k already in this first 2 weeks.

With middle ware/paradox standard it should be pretty decent esp for a new ip.

 

[Urthor]

I'm fairly sure it needs to hit minimum half of what PoE hit to be viable, and it's currently stuck at 100k on Steam and god only knows on GoG. It's not really going to make the 400k mark so even if it breaks even, there's no signs of it being a massive raging financial success which is what the industry demands in the "hit" driven business. Tyranny has to have massive residuals and be a real slow burner for Paradox and Obsidian to say "oh yea this CRPG thing is hot shit, lets put 5 different games on the backburner," instead of having the genre stuck at one game every year or two, which is what it looks like it'll be in 2025 at this rate.

Industry can't just be "well Obsidian is churning out these games so we'll leave Obsidian to sit in a corner and make these games. Oh also Larian is making megabucks and InExile has gone out of business, again, because Bard's Tale has flopped."

 

[Fairfax]

I remember Josh saying that if oyu want to do post release paid content right you have to push it out early af.

That's what Paradox told Obsidian based on their own experience. I even criticized it back then:

Content-wise, the two parts are going to be much more than just DLC. I still think it was a mistake to release them as such, no matter what Paradox research says. It's odd that Obsidian listened to them in the first place, considering how notorious they are for releasing tons of small, pointless and shitty DLC for every good one. They're going to make most of their money during the 2016 summer sale, when there should be a pack with both parts and the game, but it'll be much cheaper at that point and their profits will suffer for it.

Wait...

They're going to make most of their money during the 2016 summer sale, when there should be a pack with both parts and the game, but it'll be much cheaper at that point and their profits will suffer for it.

Mystic Fax.

 

[vortex]

It has about 100k now but it had bad opening window going against Dishonored 2 which has 2.5 bigger pitch.
If devs will announce next year how will they proceede with the title and make some DLC expansion, sales could go even higher.

Though I don't know how will Tyranny expansion or DLC go under development of PoE2.

Maybe expansion could go on Kickstarter/Fig for needed higher amount of development money altough that could affect funding of PoE2 in a bad way.

..., because Bard's Tale has flopped."

 

[HoboForEternity]

I'm fairly sure it needs to hit minimum half of what PoE hit to be viable, and it's currently stuck at 100k on Steam and god only knows on GoG. It's not really going to make the 400k mark so even if it breaks even, there's no signs of it being a massive raging financial success which is what the industry demands in the "hit" driven business. Tyranny has to have massive residuals and be a real slow burner for Paradox and Obsidian to say "oh yea this CRPG thing is hot shit, lets put 5 different games on the backburner," instead of having the genre stuck at one game every year or two, which is what it looks like it'll be in 2025 at this rate.

Industry can't just be "well Obsidian is churning out these games so we'll leave Obsidian to sit in a corner and make these games. Oh also Larian is making megabucks and InExile has gone out of business, again, because Bard's Tale has flopped."

it is literally out less than 2 weeks and the numbers will just go up.

It is made by a team around 20 people or even less than pillars, so it doesnt need to sell millions and millions.

Almost no game break even during their first week. After that dividing line, it will just be full profit and the reception so far outside the codex has been more or less pretty good.

It will keep selling and even moreso when it go on sales.


Paradox's games never sell that much anyway. Cities skyline and pillars is number 1 and 2 of their fastest selling game. Pillars had alot more hype and media support, while cities skyline is the same PLUS it is a more casual friendly genre.

Looking at number for comparison, stellaris is out for 6 months and it just hit 600,000-700,000k.

Paradox never really play on the same levek as other publishers like EA, bethesda or anything. They have found comfortable market that is enough to keep things afloat, and plan to stay their grip on that share.

 

[Urthor]

Without a doubt, I'm sure the game financially won't be a drag on Paradox.

The question is when does the game start becoming enough of a big thing that Paradox starts drafting not_Obsidian studios into the genre so we have other studios making games? That's probably a pretty big mark, much bigger than Tyranny is likely to hit.

 

[jaydee2k]

I hope Paradox will not have too much of an impact on the sale models of POE2.
Getting bonuses in Tyranny when you registered a Paradoxplaza account is fucked up enough.

 

[Prime Junta]

I'm fairly sure it needs to hit minimum half of what PoE hit to be viable

How d'you figure? I'm 100% sure it cost much less than half of PoE to develop. 100k at $30 a pop (after Steam's cut) is a cool three mil which ought to more than cover the costs.

 

[Alienman]

I hope Paradox will not have too much of an impact on the sale models of POE2.
Getting bonuses in Tyranny when you registered a Paradoxplaza account is fucked up enough.

What did you get?

 

[tripedal]

I'm fairly sure it needs to hit minimum half of what PoE hit to be viable

How d'you figure? I'm 100% sure it cost much less than half of PoE to develop. 100k at $30 a pop (after Steam's cut) is a cool three mil which ought to more than cover the costs.

Keep in mind a lot of those copies come from lower-priced regions like RU/BR. $20 per copy seems like a more reasonable estimate.

 

[Urthor]

30 plus people worked on this game, not solidly for two years because people would get rotated in and out, but the credits list is something like 30-40 people including Q/A. Lets call it, say, 20 full time employees worth of labour for 24 months at an average salary of 80k USD, and a total cost of employment of 110k when you include office rent and over overheads. Add in v/a, not much marketing I suppose since the hours of Paradox employees are sunk cost in the first place, license fees to that, and god knows what else, and you have a much bigger figure than 3 million.


The break even point for this game isn't 3 million, I'd say it's more like 4-6 million, if I was playing bingo I'd call it 4.5. A "true" breakeven point where Paradox has a return on investment is probably closer to 7-8, trying up millions of dollars for years on end is a significant opportunity cost at the end of the day. If the game breaks 8 figures Paradox will be happy.

Ofc we don't know how many copies have come through GOG, there's no definitive way of measuring hipsterism at the end of the day now, but ballpark I would say Steam 75-80% as a blind guess.

Without a doubt I am sure Tyranny will cross that break even point, especially with DLC. What I'm unsure about is whether Feargus and Paradox will get the heeby jeebies and think it was too close run a thing. And more importantly whether Paradox will double down and back some fine continental European chaps to show the soulless yanks the true meaning of incline if the financials are close run.

 

[jaydee2k]

I hope Paradox will not have too much of an impact on the sale models of POE2.
Getting bonuses in Tyranny when you registered a Paradoxplaza account is fucked up enough.

What did you get?

Paradox Accounts
What’s this daily-reward thing?

You will receive one daily reward for playing logged in to a Paradox account on consecutive days. Here are the list of consumables that will be randomly distributed:

Healing Potion (Fine) - 50% HP
Healing Potion (Superior) - 100% HP
Potion of Revival - brings a fallen party member back from KO
Cairn's Leaf - +4 Armor, +20% Endurance defense
Oldwater - +10 Arcane Armor, +20% Magic defense
Potion of Elemental Barrier - +10 Shock/Fire/Frost Armor, +50 Defense vs. Paralyzed/Burning/Frozen
Dire Remedy - 120-pt Stasis Shield, +4% Max Health
Potion of Heroes - +2 to all Attributes
Scarlet Poison - Poisons enemies on Crit
Fatiguing Toxin - Weakens enemies on Crit
Potion of Invisibility
Skycap - +10 Lore, +10 Magic Skills, +4 Wits

Disgusting !!!

 

[HoboForEternity]

i am even more surprised they don't make these paid DLC

you know paradox and their DLCs, especially ck2

 

[Fry]

Paradox will double down and back some fine continental European chaps to show the soulless yanks the true meaning of incline if the financials are close run.

Spoiler

 

[<3sRichardSimmons]

80k average for salary?! The game was made by largely junior staff, and even seasoned developers who've been in the industry for years would be pretty happy with 80k.

 

[Fry]

80k average for salary?! The game was made by largely junior staff, and even seasoned developers who've been in the industry for years would be pretty happy with 80k.

I dunno about the games industry, but 80K is way on the low end for an experienced programmer in California.

 

[vonAchdorf]

Paradox currently has an operating margin of 50% so they definitely know how to make money. But in their recent financial report they said that they make much less from games like PoE, where they don't own the IP and did the fulfillment of KS stuff.

 

[vortex]

80k average for salary?! The game was made by largely junior staff, and even seasoned developers who've been in the industry for years would be pretty happy with 80k.

I would prefer 800k. Please and thank you.

 

[Fairfax]

You can actually see the average salary for each position as reported by former or current Obsidian employees: https://www.glassdoor.com/Salary/Obsidian-Entertainment-Salaries-E151435.htm
Reviews have some interesting quotes:

Cons
They were really struggling when I was there, working on bad projects from no-name or foreign publishers. They are basically desperate to work for anyone to keep the lights on. Hopefully, Project Eternity (their own IP) will put them on solid footing again.

Advice to Management
Move. Irvine is lame and too expensive, especially that premium spot across The Spectrum.

In my experience, Obsidian seems to be routinely pushed around by the publishers they work with. This leads to rushed launches and, in some cases, making implementing poor designs because of the publisher's whims.

No strong gameplay emphasis
Poor production scheduling.
Overly Top heavy management.
Layoffs are frequent as well as mismanagement of talent.

Cons
Layoffs occur after almost every project, no bonuses and small, insignificant celebrations for project completion. Story focused studio, not enough emphasis on gameplay.

Advice to Management
Work on keeping your best employees and giving them a reason to stay, don't just rely on company loyalty to keep people.

Project expectations and mid-level management vary widely by project -- scheduling, project direction, and milestone expectations can be shaky.

Only two weeks of vacation for the first three years.