How many units will AoD sell? The bets are ON!

[villain of the story]

Well, what do you think? The poll will run for 365 days.

I also propose a real gamble (apart from the public poll) to pool some money (PayPal could work) and to divide the money between winners, if any. If no one wins, it goes to the Codex so DU won't bitch about bandwidth like a fat Jew next year again; or to Mitsodas to support Dead State or to the Iron Tower for Age of Decadence OR, the best option, a lottery where the winner would have the obligation of spending all of it on hookers and booze at once with pics for all Codexers to fap to.

Error margin would be +/- 10%.

edit: Sticky please.

 

[Clockwork Knight]

Enough to ensure it'll end up on piratebay, I hope

thirdworldians need some love, too

 

[Black]

None, because I'll pirate it 2 times for every copy sold, and as we all know, 1 pirated copy = 1 lost sale.

refusal to go steam

Yeah, what's up with that? People buy outrageous amounts of games on Steam during sales but VD somehow doesn't like it.
Steam too mainstream for AoD?

 

[SCO]

With their publicity and refusal to go steam?

700.

 

[Zed]

Depends on what distibution channels it will be made avilable on.

If it's just ITS or a product page, then I'd guess 200-1000.

GamersGate or similar non-Steam DD, +5000.

Steam, +2500. Steam with exposure, double that at least.

So 200-8500. I think 5000-10 000 will be the closest option.
If it gets good exposure and is well-recieved by reviewers, it may very well hit way over 10 000.

 

[villain of the story]

Ok, I guess we should define the length of the post-release period for the sales to count. How is one month? six months?

 

[Vault Dweller]

refusal to go steam

Who's refusing to go steam?

 

[commie]

It will sell far less than The Witcher 2 hence VD's rage against it.

But I'll still buy it.

Oh and fuck Steam. Better to sell the game at a decent price in smaller quantities than for $1.50 on Steam. People forget that Steam's pricing has just as much to do with the decline as anything else. When expectations are created among consumers that any game over $10 is a fucking rip-off and needs to be the greatest thing evah to justify such a price tag, is it any wonder that publishers and developers desperately make their games more accessible as they now need to sell 5 or 6 times as much at such a price point compared to what they would have needed to if the price of games was a more traditional $50-$60 dollars at least?

 

[Roguey]

The combat demo's been downloaded over 8000 times, and the ITS boards have had around 200,000 unique visitors in a month at the most, so I'd guess low thousands at the very least. I'm moderately certain VD's mentioned a big marketing push once it's ready for release too, so it won't be suffering from lack of exposure. It would be an absurd notion for a vice president of sales and marketing to botch the marketing of his own product.

 

[Excidium]

Enough to ensure it'll end up on piratebay, I hope

thirdworldians need some love, too

Hey, I'm buying AoD. I can live with just one kidney.

 

[Black_Willow]

Hopefully it will sell well enough. Then maybe VD will think of a real publisher who will give us a boxed version of the game.
Then I'll buy it.

 

[oldmanpaco]

refusal to go steam

Who's refusing to go steam?

So you are confirming a Steam release?

 

[Humanity has risen!]

Please include other purchasing options than Paypal on the official site, I prefer to buy from the indie directly and Paypal rejects all prepaid cards.

 

[Notorious]

meh ... 5000+ no matter what (I guess it will be alot more)

 

[GarfunkeL]

I think VD mentioned once that when they get close to release, they will get in touch with Valve.

 

[Humanity has risen!]

I think VD mentioned once that when they get close to release, they will get in touch with Valve.

Even then it's not a guarantee of acceptance, Steam turns down/ignores indie developers all the time.

They did it to Jeff Vogel with Avadon.

 

[felipepepe]

Enough to ensure it'll end up on piratebay, I hope

thirdworldians need some love, too

Hey, I'm buying AoD. I can live with just one kidney.

One kidney is easy, my real chalenge is this shitty internet with 10Gb/month bandwith cap... Make AoD less than 6Gb or else I won't even pirate it, Porn comes first.

 

[Damned Registrations]

Oh and fuck Steam. Better to sell the game at a decent price in smaller quantities than for $1.50 on Steam. People forget that Steam's pricing has just as much to do with the decline as anything else. When expectations are created among consumers that any game over $10 is a fucking rip-off and needs to be the greatest thing evah to justify such a price tag, is it any wonder that publishers and developers desperately make their games more accessible as they now need to sell 5 or 6 times as much at such a price point compared to what they would have needed to if the price of games was a more traditional $50-$60 dollars at least?

Except selling a game digitally doesn't require physical manufacturing, shipping, floor space, retail employees, security or storage space. Kinda cuts the overhead by, you know, 99%.

God, just imagine how much more awesome Pepsi would be if people were willing to pay 8$ a can. They'd invest so much more money in making it!!!one

 

[Melcar]

Between 200 an 1000 copies, and over 20000 instances of non inventory removal.

 

[thursdayschild]

I chose 0 because it won't sell any unless it comes out.

If it comes out I'm sure it will sell at least 20000 copies, but I'll probably die before 2015 so.

 

[Metro]

refusal to go steam

Who's refusing to go steam?

So you are confirming a Steam release?

Well, they can't really confirm that since Valve still has to approve all games for release but I've never seen where they've refused to release on Steam. It would be a horrible business decision and I can't see them making it. Having it on Steam during a 50% off or whatever sale would probably generate them ten times the revenue they'd see elsewhere, total. Even after Valve's cut (which I think is only about 30%).

And if VD were really smart he'd ask Valve to give a TF2 promo hat with every purchase of AoD.

 

[Multi-headed Cow]

Depends entirely on if it gets on Steam or not. And the price. And if they're willing to do discounts for Steam sales.

 

[SCO]

And if VD were really smart he'd ask Valve to give a TF2 promo hat with every purchase of AoD.

Not a hat - a galea (legionary helmet).

 

[Oriebam]

Enough to ensure it'll end up on piratebay, I hope

thirdworldians need some love, too

Hey, I'm buying AoD. I can live with just one kidney.

One kidney is easy, my real chalenge is this shitty internet with 10Gb/month bandwith cap... Make AoD less than 6Gb or else I won't even pirate it, Porn comes first.

Fuck I heard a chinese kid actually sold a kidney to some typical chinese businessmen for an Ipod, ugly scars

There's not even a decent ultima torrent out there

@commie
the decline's not their fault, bro,it's pretty clear it has more to do with us, you know, the people who pay(or don't) for games

 

[TripJack]

come on guys it's impossible to sell vaporware unless you have a master con artist on the payroll

unfortunately for vince, he is definitely not a master con artist and no actual master con artist would ever waste time selling some quaint crpg to a few dozen crazies on the internet