Mareus said:
I think it won't sell half as good as Oblivion. You see, most Morrowind fans that bought Oblivion are still pretty pissed about it, so don't count them to get suckered again. Most Fallout fans will probably skip this, because Bethseda raped the series. All you have left are console Oblivion fanboys (retards), so there is no way this is going to sell so well. Also forget Australia, LOL
It's probably going to sell pretty strongly, but not in the vein that Oblivion did. Mostly due to a few nasty little factors.
-Being bookended in between Fable 2 and Gears of War 2 release dates. An action-RPG and a post-apoc shooter for the 360 that are both highly anticipated. Many 360 RPG fans will blow their cash early on Fable, and many shooter fans will wait for Gears. And seeing as the 360 is the primary platform....this could be trouble.
-Spore, quite possibly the most hyped game of the past few years also drops around he same time, with an online component to discourage piracy. PC gamers will be much more interested in this.
-Clear Sky might also take a bite out of the PC sales seeing as Fallout 3 doesn't seem to drive home much about being a vastly different product.
-PC version will likely be pirated to hell, thanks to few angry Fallout fans seeding the torrents ASAP and keeping them running smoothly. That's one thing 11 angry gys can actually do. Most pirates are leechers by heart, but now you have idealistic, pissed-off pirates. Not going to sink Bethesda, but it could take a few thousand bucks away.
-PS3 is pretty much uncontested, but I'm not sure whether PS3 gamers like Bethesda's style, and after how horrible the PS3 port of Oblivion was, whether they trust them.
-Marketing in America is going to be fun, seeing as Obama and McCain are going to be dominating the airwaves and internet as the election really heats up in September/October. Couple that with the situation in Eastern Europe that's brewing up, I don't think it's a great time to be advertising something to the Western world. "Regular people", the bread and butter of mainstream game sales, are going to have a lot more on their minds than games. Sure, the more "hardcore" will still watch, but they aren't an overwhelming amount, and not all of them like the game.
-It's M-rated, and not the Halo style M-rating that boggles the mind as to why a shooter with pink/purple alien blood and Sgt.Johnson's daytime TV trash talk gets rated so.....harshly. Might be harder for the Halo kiddies to convince mommy or daddy to get a game with a ton of "fucks", drug use, and a lot of violence.
Seems silly they decided to release in late October instead of early-to-mid December when they could pick up on the Holiday shopping rush, and be much less contested. Surprised that Beth's marketing didn't pick upon this. Guess they're too busy spending assloads on silly Power Armor statues.