Was Dragon Age: Inquisition a commercial failure?

[meanwhileInPoland]

http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...A1DC-0D5ECAF58B18/Q3_FY15_Earnings_Script.pdf

Dragon Age: Inquisition captivated fans and critics worldwide as it launched in November, and it quickly became the most successful launch in BioWare history. More than 113 million hours have already been spent exploring the depth and detail of the single-player experience in Dragon Age: Inquisition, and more players are joining each day. Named “Game of the Year” by 32 media outlets around the world, including IGN, Game Informer and the Associated Press, Dragon Age: Inquisition is a true masterpiece from the team at BioWare and a game that is sure to be played for a long time to come.

In particular, Dragon Age: Inquisition had by far the most successful launch in BioWare’s history, exceeding our expectations.

Outperformance versus our outlook was driven by the record-breaking Dragon Age: Inquisition performance.

also according to Neogaf DAI in UK 10 weeks after launch is still in top 20 sales at 10th position.

Spoiler

UK top 20 Jan 25, week 10 since launch I think, still there in 11th, was 10th last week

1 1 GRAND THEFT AUTO V ROCKSTAR NORTH ROCKSTAR TAKE 2
3 2 CALL OF DUTY: ADVANCED WARFARE SLEDGEHAMMER GAMES ACTIVISION ACTIVISION BLIZZARD
2 3 FIFA 15 EA CANADA EA SPORTS ELECTRONIC ARTS
- 4 SAINTS ROW IV RE-ELECTED/GAT OUT OF HELL DEEP SILVER VOLITION DEEP SILVER KOCH MEDIA
4 5 FAR CRY 4 UBISOFT (MONTREAL) UBISOFT UBISOFT
- 6 RUGBY 15 HB STUDIOS BIG BEN KOCH MEDIA
5 7 THE CREW IVORY TOWER/UBISOFT REFLECTIONS UBISOFT UBISOFT
7 8 DESTINY BUNGIE ACTIVISION ACTIVISION BLIZZARD
6 9 ASSASSIN'S CREED: UNITY UBISOFT (MONTREAL) UBISOFT UBISOFT
8 10 LEGO BATMAN 3: BEYOND GOTHAM TRAVELLER'S TALES WARNER BROS. INTERACTIVE WARNER BROS. INTERACTIVE
10 11 DRAGON AGE: INQUISITION BIOWARE EA GAMES ELECTRONIC ARTS
19 12 WWE 2K15 YUKE'S/VISUAL CONCEPTS 2K SPORTS TAKE 2
9 13 ASSASSIN'S CREED IV: BLACK FLAG UBISOFT (MONTREAL) UBISOFT UBISOFT
15 14 MIDDLE EARTH: SHADOW OF MORDOR MONOLITH WARNER BROS. INTERACTIVE WARNER BROS. INTERACTIVE
11 15 SUPER SMASH BROS. SORA LTD NINTENDO NINTENDO
13 16 FOOTBALL MANAGER 2015 SPORTS INTERACTIVE SEGA SEGA
12 17 ASSASSIN'S CREED: ROGUE UBISOFT (BULGARIA) UBISOFT UBISOFT
20 18 THE EVIL WITHIN TANGO GAMEWORKS BETHESDA SOFTWORKS BETHESDA SOFTWORKS
16 19 FORZA HORIZON 2 PLAYGROUND GAMES MICROSOFT MICROSOFT
17 20 ALIEN: ISOLATION CREATIVE ASSEMBLY SEGA SEGA

So not only the biggest launch in Bioware history but also a long-term sales similar to DAO

 

[imweasel]

So not only the biggest launch in Bioware history but also a long-term sales similar to DAO

Doh ho ho.

 

[Slow James]

So not only the biggest launch in Bioware history but also a long-term sales similar to DAO

It's a totally accurate statement - four consoles. That's more console than any game in Bioware history!

The amount of sweeping under the rug for that earnings call is hilarious. The fact that they went the GOTY!!!! route as well is laughable.

 

[Xorazm]

Can someone make some sense out of this for me? Inquisition dropped very quickly from every chart we've got our hands on. Browsing on the Neogaf forum discussing the same topic (http://67.227.255.239/forum/showthread.php?t=980633&page=5) someone makes the following point:

>>How... how is this possible? We know from NPD leaks that it sold < 600k on all platforms in November. Optimistically, it could have sold another 300k in December. And presumably it sold around 500k units in Europe. So with those broad assumptions, 1.5 million units sold in the first two months makes it the most successful launch?!


We also know that Mass Effect 3 shipped 3.5 million in its first week:

http://www.gamespot.com/articles/mass-effect-3-ships-35-million/1100-6365404/

I understand that "shipped" doesn't necessarily mean "sold" but I just don't see any way that these numbers add up. Some people are suggesting that maybe EA is referring to profit rather than total numbers sold, but the available numbers indicate that we're still in Dragon Age 2 territory and DA:I must have cost more than the rushed, slapdash DA: 2. Another theory I've seen is that the numbers we have aren't accounting for PC digital sales, but I still don't see any way that you close the gap to Mass Effect 3 numbers on digital alone.

Somebody explain this to me.

 

[tuluse]

Companies are very careful about phrasing Xorazm. "Most successful launch" may or may not mean "most commercially successful launch". It may mean most pre-orders and day one purchases since that's the "launch" and everything after is not.

 

[imweasel]

Can someone make some sense out of this for me?

"Dragon Age: Inquisition [...] quickly became the most successful launch in BioWare history" can mean almost anything in PR speak. EA can beat around the bush and bullshit as much as they want in their earnings report as long as they don't cook the books.

 

[Mustawd]

So not only the biggest launch in Bioware history but also a long-term sales similar to DAO

It's a totally accurate statement - four consoles. That's more console than any game in Bioware history!

The amount of sweeping under the rug for that earnings call is hilarious. The fact that they went the GOTY!!!! route as well is laughable.

It really is pretty transparent that it's doing mediocre. For example:

1. Analyst asks about weak December NPD sales.
-CEO calls it a "blip" (in December? Please)
-CFO gets butthurt about mentioning NPD because it's not international (as if US/N America isn't the biggest segment here) and it only measures physical sales (even though by their own measure Q4 revenue is 50/50 split between physical and digital...making his argument kind of pointless)
-Only November release is DA:I. Every other game was published in late September or much earlier. To me it sounded like the analyst was implying DA:I wasn't doing so well.

2. No mention of sale numbers = not huge success;
-They led the earnings call with DA:I and hyped up the potential..so it's not doing terrible. Otherwise, we wouldn't have heard anything about it.
-They mentioned hours played..crappy proxy for the real thing,


3. Some questionable statements
-Called DA:I a "masterpiece". Sounding a bit desperate to me.
-Said that margins in Q4 2014 improved..."led by DA:I". This sounds like complete BS to me. He's implying they've already recovered their production costs and have large enough margins to increase the company's profitability. MAYBE if he meant forecasted sales or whatever. Still sounds way off to me.


Overall, I heard a lot of hype but nothing concrete. When you have a slam dunk you don't pussy foot around. You shout it out as loud as you can so investors buy your stock, stock increases, and your bonuses go up. This earnings call was not that. It was more like damage control.

 

[Mustawd]

Can someone make some sense out of this for me?

I understand that "shipped" doesn't necessarily mean "sold" but I just don't see any way that these numbers add up. Some people are suggesting that maybe EA is referring to profit rather than total numbers sold, but the available numbers indicate that we're still in Dragon Age 2 territory and DA:I must have cost more than the rushed, slapdash DA: 2. Another theory I've seen is that the numbers we have aren't accounting for PC digital sales, but I still don't see any way that you close the gap to Mass Effect 3 numbers on digital alone.

Somebody explain this to me.

A.) From what I understand NPD tracks physical sales. In addition, EA's digital/physical mix in the last quarter was about 50-50; Specifically 45/55 to be more precise. So if NPD is right...then total units sold would be around 2.7 million shipped. But...

You can't ship digital. So that was a pointless argument.

B.) "Shipped" is a worthless number. It can mean shipped to retailers. Shipped from the manufacturing plants to the JIT inventory locations in anticipation of retailer sales. It can mean shipping to stores on consignment. It can mean units shipped for a whole three month period, in which case the weekly amount goes down significantly. A variety of things are possible with such a vague term. It's why they use those terms in the first place.


Your link says 3.5 million units shipped...but look at this NPD link below:


http://www.gamespot.com/forums/syst...sales-march-2012-update-7-vita-200k-29132239/

and another one for reference:

http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/NPD_March_2012


That's around $1.14 million for Mass Effect 3 for the entire month of its release. Doesn't really jive with "shipped 3.5M in first week".

 

[tuluse]

A.) From what I understand NPD tracks physical sales. In addition, EA's digital/physical mix in the last quarter was about 50-50; Specifically 45/55 to be more precise. So if NPD is right...then total units sold would be around 2.7 million shipped. But...

Isn't the digital-physical mix including DLC and mobile games (and micro-transactions)?


I don't think 50% of new game sales are 50% yet.

 

[Mustawd]

A.) From what I understand NPD tracks physical sales. In addition, EA's digital/physical mix in the last quarter was about 50-50; Specifically 45/55 to be more precise. So if NPD is right...then total units sold would be around 2.7 million shipped. But...

Isn't the digital-physical mix including DLC and mobile games (and micro-transactions)?


I don't think 50% of new game sales are 50% yet.

That's a good point. Mobile makes up about 22%. DLC...hard to figure out what % of that is based on previously bought games and what's orginal content unrelated to their releases. Really...point A was kind of week, I admit. But it's really kind of a worthless argument now that I think about it. You can't "ship" digital as far as I know.

 

[Mustawd]

That's around $1.14 million for Mass Effect 3 for the entire month of its release. Doesn't really jive with "shipped 3.5M in first week".

I meant, 1.14 million units sold.

 

[PhantasmaNL]

Im not into pr and marketing but common sense (which may not be used that frequently in said fields) suggests that a major succes should be announced, detailed, in all media. You would want to capitalize on that succes, keep the momentum going and put your company in the spotlight for as long as possible. The fact that they mention only indirect numbers (Bull rides:100 gazillion!1!) also doesnt fit. It would also be interesting to estimate the amount of monies sunk into making this game.

 

[mastroego]

Lol, total hours played.
Including time spent in pause while cooking and/or fapping at the gay sex scenes.

 

[Whiran]

It really is pretty transparent that it's doing mediocre. For example:

I don't agree with this unless you consider "mediocre" to be over a million units sold.

2. No mention of sale numbers = not huge success;
-They led the earnings call with DA:I and hyped up the potential..so it's not doing terrible. Otherwise, we wouldn't have heard anything about it.
-They mentioned hours played..crappy proxy for the real thing,

This depends on your definition of 'huge success' - Inquisition is doing well enough for EA for them to devote significant real estate in their earnings report to keep bringing it back up. When a game does not do as expected they (EA) shuts up about it fast. The game gets a brief line noting that it was released and maybe something else but then it goes away.

As to the hours played - that is a strange statistic. I question why they mention that instead of units sold but if we go with the hefty assumption that an average player plays 100 hours of Dragon's Age: Inquisition then we are left with 1.18 million units sold. But, this brings up the question of why did EA not announce 1 million units sold? That seems to be a milestone that is understandable and potentially useful.

Overall, I heard a lot of hype but nothing concrete. When you have a slam dunk you don't pussy foot around. You shout it out as loud as you can so investors buy your stock, stock increases, and your bonuses go up. This earnings call was not that. It was more like damage control.

Were to listening and reading the same earnings report as I was?

Selected Financial Highlights:
*On a non-GAAP basis
•For the quarter, net revenue* of $1.428 billion was above our guidance of $1.275 billion.
Diluted earnings per share* of $1.22 was above our guidance of $0.90.

•On a trailing twelve month basis, EA had net revenue* of $4.337 billion of which a record
$2.178 billion was digital* (more than half for the first time ever), net income* of $833
million and operating cash flow of $1.150 billion (a record for a calendar year).

•EA raised fiscal 2015 net revenue* guidance from $4.175 billion to $4.253 billion and diluted EPS* guidance from $2.05 to $2.35 per share

Damage control does not involve upping expectations or making more per share then was estimated.

You might not like EA and you may think Inquisition isn't a great game (I'm down with both of those) but EA made almost one and a half billion dollars in four months. That's a fair bit of coin.

 

[Bubbles]

You might not like EA and you may think Inquisition isn't a great game (I'm down with both of those) but EA made almost one and a half billion dollars in four months. That's a fair bit of coin.

If you assume that they made at least 20 bucks from every copy of DA:I sold, that would put the upper margin for DA:I sales at 71.4 million copies. The amount of dragons slain tells us that they must have sold at least 260k copies. Now we have a clear upper and lower bound for speculation.

 

[Whiran]

If you assume that they made at least 20 bucks from every copy of DA:I sold, that would put the upper margin for DA:I sales at 71.4 million copies. The amount of dragons slain tells us that they must have sold at least 260k copies. Now we have a clear upper and lower bound for speculation.

Net revenue is from all of of EA's activities not just DA:I. My apologies for not being clear on that. The quotes from the Earnings Release talk about EA as a company.

 

[Executr]

It seems that this "most successful launch" is based on the number of units sold, as said to Gamespot by an EA representative, but they won't disclose this number.
They are also saying that we should expect DLCs.

 

[Infinitron]

It seems that this "most successful launch" is based on the number of units sold, as said to Gamespot by an EA representative, but they won't disclose this number.
They are also saying that we should expect DLCs.

http://www.gamespot.com/articles/dragon-age-inquisition-is-now-bioware-s-most-succe/1100-6424928/

Dragon Age: Inquisition is now the "most successful launch in BioWare history," publisher Electronic Arts announced on Tuesday as part of the company's latest earnings report.

A specific sales number was not divulged, but EA mentions that the game's single-player campaign alone "has been enjoyed for more than 113 million hours."

An EA representative told GameSpot that the "most successful launch" milestone is "based on units sold, but we are not disclosing that total."

Inquisition launched in November 2014, and is currently available for Xbox 360, Xbox One, PlayStation 3,PlayStation 4, and PC.

Can they disclose what "launch" means?

 

[Athelas]

Another thing to take into consideration is that DA:I launched on 5 platforms, which is a first for Bioware.

 

[Executr]

Another thing to take into consideration is that DA:I launched on 5 platforms, which is a first for Bioware.

Yeah, the first Dragon Age on the new consoles, releasead also for the old-gen and PC, combining with the launch just before Christmas, the agressive marketing campaign where they said they would listen to the community after the DA2 fiasco and the high score reviews from professional critics might explain this "successful launch".

 

[meanwhileInPoland]

You might not like EA and you may think Inquisition isn't a great game (I'm down with both of those) but EA made almost one and a half billion dollars in four months. That's a fair bit of coin.

If you assume that they made at least 20 bucks from every copy of DA:I sold, that would put the upper margin for DA:I sales at 71.4 million copies. The amount of dragons slain tells us that they must have sold at least 260k copies. Now we have a clear upper and lower bound for speculation.

lol dude you think biodrones play that game to hunt and kill dragons? most of them on bsn or reddit admit to have problems with killing a single dragon in hinterlands while playing on easy. ffs even "journalists" in gamespot videos barely made it... the fucking state of this industry

you know very well what are they looking for in DAI...

 

[Darkzone]

No it was not sarcasm it was a sincere question.

In fact, everything I write on the Codex is composed in utter and total sincerity except this sentence

You are a little paradox liar. Shame on you for not being solvable. I'm going to report you to Prior or Kripke.

 

[hell bovine]

lol dude you think biodrones play that game to hunt and kill dragons? most of them on bsn or reddit admit to have problems with killing a single dragon in hinterlands while playing on easy. ffs even "journalists" in gamespot videos barely made it... the fucking state of this industry

you know very well what are they looking for in DAI...

I've said it before: Bioware is aiming for the 50 shades of creepy porn fans. Skyrim might have sold 20 million, but the books sold over a 100 million. If they can convince even only a part of them to convert to gaming, then those old-fashioned folks, who play games to kill dragons will become a minority. And no one will cater to them anymore. This is the future of cRPG gaming.

 

[Slow James]

http://www.gamespot.com/articles/dragon-age-inquisition-is-now-bioware-s-most-succe/1100-6424928/



Can they disclose what "launch" means?

Even if was "first week sales" for sucker pre-orders, I'm surprised. ME3 had nine levels of hype around it prior to release - I'm surprised it's numbers are higher than even that.

 

[imweasel]

http://www.gamespot.com/articles/dragon-age-inquisition-is-now-bioware-s-most-succe/1100-6424928/



Can they disclose what "launch" means?

Even if was "first week sales" for sucker pre-orders, I'm surprised. ME3 had nine levels of hype around it prior to release - I'm surprised it's numbers are higher than even that.

For all we know "most succesful launch" could only mean day one sales including preorders, that still doesn't mean that overall sales aren't shit. Like Infintron wrote, EA should disclose what they mean by launch.