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Community The New World Design Poll #2: RNG

Discussion in 'RPG News & Content' started by Infinitron, May 30, 2018.

  1. Raapys Arcane

    Raapys
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    One way of approaching it would be to make every attack into multiple smaller attacks. You attack once with 70% thc, character strikes three times each with a 70% chance. You're gonna stay much closer to the average. Of course, this changes the balance quite significantly in cases of flat damage bonuses/reductions.

    That's ultimately what it comes down to though, the importance of any single hit/miss. The more important it is, the more annoying a bad roll gets. If hitting once wins you the match, then your to-hit chance ~ your chance to win. And vice versa with taking hits and losing. On the other hand, if you just lower damage(or just increase hp) so much that it averages out anyway, combat becomes long and boring.

    I think finding a good balance on this is a better solution than doing weird things with the RNG though.
     
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  2. Rinslin Merwind Educated

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    Except it would be weird for non automatic weapons.
     
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  3. Raapys Arcane

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    Nah, it would just turn the attacks into combo attacks. You already have it to some degree in AoD, e.g. Flurry.
     
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  4. Tigranes Prestigious Gentleman Arcane

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    I mean that raging "how did I miss 3 times in a row at 70%, the game is rigged" is my own failing. I think there's nothing wrong with missing 3 times in a row at 70%, and that the rare occasions in which that happens can serve to create great moments.

    What I mean is that I don't want to play TNW, miss 3 times, then think, "OK, now I'll hit it for sure." That metaknowledge is an exploit. However, this isn't such a big deal because only random Codexers like me will even know about it.

    The big point for me is to have a system that isn't rearranging things behind the scenes based on what just happened or what the player expects, but to have a system that is already in place & does its thing.

    For example, would this work the other way round? Let's say I have a 10% chance to hit, and hit twice in a row. Will the game then adjust the pool of possibilities that the next hit will definitively miss, using up one of the nine 'misses' in that bag?
     
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  5. IHaveHugeNick Arcane

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    But that's just the thing. Understanding probability doesn't make it any less rage inducing when the dice rolls against you. Shooting mechanics are abstractions and as such they need to remain believable. Missing a point-blank shot with a shotgun just ruins your suspension of disbelief, regardless if you understand the math under the hood or not.

    Ie, people still play roulette and the slot machines, even though it's public knowledge that both are rigged and house always wins in the long term. It's on the house (or in this case, the devs) to come up with a way to rig the dice that will be entertaining.
     
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  6. trais Arcane

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    Fudging RNG and lying to the player via tooltips is bad. Really bad.
    If you want to cater to crybabies, do it some other way, e.g. when some sufficient level of bad luck in combat is reached, give them a free re-roll.

    Or better, some extra XP or SP for being capable of handling a streak of bad luck like a champ.
     
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  7. FeelTheRads Arcane Patron

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    What a load of shit.

    Can never actually state the real reasons, can you?
    It's always "loooooooooooololol rpgs were wrong always we'll be ones to fix them with this one easy trick" with you "developers".

    Sure thing, bro. Nobody ever figured out these easy tricks and thought of implementing them, thank fuck for this new breed of "developers".

    You're doing it because of newfags and retards who can't stand missing and kids who go "loool it looks stupid, how can i miss if i'm standing right in front of him looalalalool". Period.
     
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  8. Rinslin Merwind Educated

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    There a little story for ya:
    Show Spoiler
    A group of professional policeman staying in cover and shooting at 100 year old lady staying (she holding a tiny plastic bag) in doorway of exit from one big building without windows (company owner used private distributive of Linux), after 3 minute of intense fire lady pulled from her tiny plastic bag revolver Python (she can't learn javascript, poor lady) shot to death all policemen and herself by accident.

    After 3 days journalist asked a question to director of Police Department about such tragic incident, and he answered: "It''s ok that we wasn't able to kill weak pedophile without military experience during 3 min intense fire, you see there a possibility for bullet to magically disappear in air because God with name RNG wanted to do this. But it's our fault there nothing wrong with this, next time our policemen would praying harder to RNG for better luck. Her life was ended by unfortunate critical fail during last shot and she had no fate points." "But how lady without experience in weapons can kill 5 policemen?" - asked journalist. Director said: "Random critz!"
    The End.
     
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  9. Trashos Magister

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    Just pointing out that missing a 70% attack three times in a row has a 2.7% probability of occurrence. So in a game where all your attacks are 70% THC, you are bound to see such a thing once every 35-40 attacks. Which is not very rare, and should be expected.

    Carry on.
     
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  10. Murk Prestigious Gentleman Arcane

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    I don't care strongly one way or the other, but if you're asking for opinions then I'd rather pure RNG than any degree of meta-rigging.

    I can appreciate that I may be frustrated at le 3x miss @ 70% THC* but such is life, and frustration is part of it.

    *3x@70%! is a fitting codeword since it doubles as a frustrated growlix exclamation.
     
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  11. Sensuki Arcane Cuck

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    Since it's not an ARPG or a game where you attack hundreds of times per hour, a lower amount is probably better IF you're going to go down that route - that said I suppose it's something that could easily be changed through testing and feedback. I agree that 20-30 would be a good start.

    If anything it would make it easier to tune the difficulty to the desired state (probably on the quite hard side) because of the more consistent results of rolls from both players and enemies.
     
    Last edited: Jun 1, 2018
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  12. Mr. Magniloquent Novice

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    You don't need to rig dice, or create exceptions to your system's rules. You simply need to design a more robust system. Rolling multiple dice and taking the highest is an excellent one. Quantity of dice for reliability, scope of dice for magnitude.

    https://anydice.com/program/10259

    Follow the link. View 'Graph' and 'at least' for Data. I've created a simple comparison between 1d10 (Laymen), 2d10 (Trained), 3d10 (Specialized). Each of them has the full range of possibility. A scrub can get lucky and knock it out of the park, and a master can trip on their shoelaces. The probability of them doing so, are highly skewed such that the greater training will trend to higher values (reliability). You can also get into interesting match-ups between someone who is ordinary but trained vs. someone exceptional but untrained. So many ways to manipulate these dice to simulate most anything you want. For example, where you have your XCOM commando point-blank to an alien, give them a bonus of 2dx to their roll. Taking the highest from rolling 4d6 instead of 2d6 will effectively guarantee a good result (for an easy shot) without eliminating flubs "artificially" or changing the threat of the weapon.
     
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  13. Mr. Hiver Learned

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    Thats all very nice but:
    1. Games where you can attack three times are very rare.
    2. In the few that provide such opportunity i played three consecutive misses - and repeated consecutive triple misses happen much more often.
    3. It never happens on lower THC... or extremely rarely.

    I guess it could be because by some quirk of xp distribution i end up playing with 70-ish % THC more time then with lower ones, but its hard to take that idea as evidence or a fact just like that, and im not the only one noticing this discrepancy.


    This is something i would be much more in favor for.
    I dont think trying to force in a quick and simple solution is the best option. As the current mechanic is already a gross simplification - and obviously provides undesirable effects.

    Trying to remove it as Larian did is the opposite extreme and shouldnt be in RPGs at all.

    A more nuanced approach would be optimal.
     
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  14. Fenix Liturgist Vatnik

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    You see, if the problem is to make believe player it works, you can go the way Underrail did - simply there is shooting range in game, where you can check probabilities.
    This thing help greatly to mitigate all these stupid talks - you can simply go there and shot a session of any number of shots.
    I did that few times and now know it works.
    I think it's a good idea and demonstrative evidence of how everything works.
     
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  15. deuxhero Arcane

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    Why not have an option to write all random numbers (assuming the same range), even branches where the player reloads, generated to a text file to show the RNG is accurate?
     
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  16. Daedalos Self-Ejected The Real Fanboy

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    The best possible outcome of this is always give the player what they expect.

    After a certain skill/level/degree/percentage, make the attack always hit or ALMOST always hit.

    Is it really fun to differentiate between 75 and 85 % hit rate? How important is it really for the overall gameplay?

    Wouldn't it be better to just say, well, you reached THIS level of skill in guns, and hence, you should always hit with weapons. What does a To-Hit percentage really add to the game in terms of gameplay and fun?

    You could also instead have something like hidden scores with titles instead, just as novice, trained, skilled, excellent, master etc.

    Excellent and master skilllevels would ALWAYS hit no matter what, but there could be other benefits between excellent and master, whereas novice, trained and skilled might have actual differences in to-hit chance and other negatives.

    tldr: It isn't FUN or engagning to miss a target with 85 - 95 % hit rate, and it sort of betrays player agency and expectations because of it. If I leveled the gun skill THIS much, well then I expect to always hit.

    Making it harder to achieve the "always hit" skill-level is another discussion in terms of balance, but it should definitely be there.

    I mean would a master sniper miss his target? Probably not, obviously it depends on alot of factors, but most people would expect an expert marksman sniper soldier dude to know his shit and always hit the target even in shitty conditions.
     
    Last edited: Jun 1, 2018
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  17. Van-d-all Learned

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    I think the whole issue comes from misconceived representation of randomness in terms of probability distribution. This boils down to the old D&D d20 vs GURPS 3d6. Linear probability leads to those kinds of ridiculous outcomes, because it models borderline cases as equally possible as common ones; and rigging it to player favor is equally unnatural. IMO applying band aids to a broken system fixes nothing, so just adapt a proper bell curved model...
     
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  18. Fenix Liturgist Vatnik

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    If they are ok with hitting 5-6 times in a row, they should be fine with such misses. Otherwise don't know what to say.

    I heard it doesn't display real numbers, that's the problem of the game.

    What if different kind of attacks cost different in AP? Could you use some cheap attack, target farthest enemy then when you know that your hit-card is near - you can make shot fro sertain, with devastating effect. ???

    Well, looks liek the answer...

    As much as I can understand, it's about appealing to more popamole audience which is increasingly more and more stupid with time, as society degrades.
    While question "what's can change the nature of Random" 30-40 years ago didn't generated such backlash as today because people were evenly educated - at least those who played such games, today is different - there are many of those who intellectually can't cross the street on the green light, while they can press a buttons on gamepads and even keyboards, can connect to internet and other techy stuff.
    The gamer's society has changed...

    Also, this your screenshot is sophism - this number represent a number of factors - state of soldier, state of enemy, weapon etc.
    Do you really think that if have knife you can hit everyone on the onther end of the knife? Even those who was trained to dodge such attacks?
    I know this is a fun pic, I laughed too, but the logic behind it is wrong.
     
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  19. Fenix Liturgist Vatnik

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    I have a question - how this problem was solved in f.ex. Jagged Alliance 2?
    I ask those who played - I think JA2 has no such manipulations with random, so it's interesting how players solved their problem.

    For example you need to kill enemy whithin next turn no matter what. Your THC is infamous 70%.
    What will you do?

    Also, my overall conclusion - ideally, and I mean ideally I would be glad to have BOTH systems in game.
    Thus I can compare what is best for what.
    If it takes too much resources then... do as you want, I prefer old crystal clear random...
     
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  20. agentorange Arcane Patron

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    The people who whine about this stuff fit the character of a person who will never be satisfied. You can deconstruct the entire system of AoD and New World and remake it into some kind of deterministic system and they would still find some way to complain about it not being fair. So I don't see any reason to attempt to appeal to them at even the most minor level.
     
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  21. janjetina Arcane

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    You could abandon modelling attacks as independent events and use a simple 1st order Markov chain, like below, or some other Markov chain.

    x denotes the state after i consecutive misses. x[0] denotes the initial state and the state after the last hit (each hit resets the current state to x[0]). So, only two transitions are possible from each state x: one to a state x[i+1] (a miss) and another to a state 0 (a hit).

    p(x[0]) = p : probability to hit after 0 misses (fixed)
    p(x[0] | x) = p(x) + a*(1-p(x)), where a <= min ( p(x), 1 - p(x) ) : probability to hit after i misses
    p(x[i+1] | x) = 1 - p(x[0] | x) : probability to miss after i misses


    For example, for a = min(p(x), 1-p(x)) starting with p=0.6, you get the chain p[X] = {0.6, 0.76, 0.82,...}
    Starting with p=0.4 you get p[X] = {0.4, 0.64, 0.77,...}

    A more conservative option would be p(x[0] | x) = p(x) + a^2.
    Both options boost mid-range probabilities the most, while very low and very high probabilities are not as affected.
    If one wants to avoid a ridiculous situation like a point blank miss, one could simply implement a hard probability threshold to transition into x[0] (i.e. to hit) when p(x) >= T).

    In addition to probability p, only current probability p(x) and equations above need to be memorized. Implementation is a piece of cake. Then use non-popamole testers for proper model selection between the independent attacks and a few Markov-like models.
     
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  22. Trashos Magister

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    janjetina, how are you going to let players strategize over this?

    Yes, that's what I think is happening. As you can see here (and probably in other games' forums too), developers are trying to alleviate players' frustration, not backstab them. Wouldn't make any sense.
     
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  23. Mr. Hiver Learned

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    Excellent suggestion janjetina

    By presenting such system in gameplay, lore and setting terms. Of course.

    Its not like it drastically changes how things work, in fact it simulates real world better and so it would be naturally understandable to players as is, through effects they can experience and see in the gameplay.

    Thats completely irrelevant, as my actual experience is completely different. And especially because such gross simplifications as that form of THC distort how things actually work.

    I never said anything about developers trying to backstab anyone... try not to address me with strawman arguments, however unintentional they may be.
    I think this mechanic can be and should be improved. NOT made easier for players, NOT removed. Improved.
     
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  24. Tigranes Prestigious Gentleman Arcane

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    This is a good example of what I don't want to see - design being driven by some idea of player expectation that dilutes system consistency.

    If you are going to have a percentage-driven THC system at all, then you are saying that (1) the many vagaries of combat will be abstracted into a possibility of missing; (2) that every action carries a certain risk, and there is a strategic/tactical element in learning to mitigate those risks and also responding to when things go astray. Given this, there is simply no good gameplay reason to say "above 80% everybody hits". There is only one reason for such a thing: "people who don't understand probability get annoyed and we should make them not get frustrated." I really don't see why the above systemic benefits of a THC system have to be sacrificed for that. (You might as well just bump all THCs up by 20% across the board, and make it easy for people to get to 100%, instead of lying about 80%.)

    Now, if we were to say, THC is silly anyway and we should have a different system, e.g. one where attacks always hit but can be set up for guaranteed dodges/mitigations, etc., then fine, put up such a system and argue for its strategic benefits.
     
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  25. Daedalos Self-Ejected The Real Fanboy

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    Yea I'm probably leaning more towards not having a THC system at all, because it is quite silly in terms of combat, it renders it very shallow imo, because it gets to dictate combat depth and strategy.

    Even in a THC system, I think there's a perfectly good gameplay reason to say, well at THIS certain level of skill, THC becomes a non-issue, because of how skilled you are, effectively ensureing that missing is no longer an issue, because of how specialized you are. You could even add new bonuses on top of that. So only the really specialized builds, get an always to hit chance, it's a choice, it's a strategic advantage of having specialized yourself so much, I don't understand what the problem with it is.

    If you don't allow the player to have any means or forms of mitigating frustrating situations, then its really bad game design imo. You can mitigate THC and the frustrations thereof, by allowing people to ALWAYS hit beyond a certain point, but they sacrifice much doing so. Give the player the OPTION to always be able to hit, directly through specializations, but instate a more complex combat system in conjunction with THC.

    If you don't give people the option to mitigate missing a shot at 95 % THC with every combat specialization, and it only encourages save scumming and otherwise cheesey behaviour not intended. I want a gaurentee, that if I specialize heavily into weaponry, then I won't encounter unexpected dumb RNG situations, that's basically what it boils down to.
     
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