Eternity PoE II: Deadfire Sales Analysis Thread

[Fairfax]

Big budget games funded by mainstream publishers sell more copies than indie games that exist only because bunch of people gathered coin into a hat?

I am shocked. Shocked.

Deadfire's budget should be comparable to if not greater than KotOR 2's and NWN2's.

Definitely more expensive than DS3, which also sold a lot more than PoE2.

 

[The Avatar]

It's extremely funny and poetic how the nwn2 and kotor2 slam dunks were more successful than Deadfire.

Even the DA2 slam dunk was more successful than Deadfire.

Even DAI was more successful than Deadfire and that came after the disappointing DA2 and with a big side of bandwagon.

Those are Big Publisher games so you really can't compare them to Deadfire, which was largely crowdfunded. It just not an AAA game.

NWN1/2, well that was a different time, and it was sold at almost every store that sold software- back when people actually bought PC games in stores.

Was anyone really expecting Deadfire to do better than any Dragon Age game, with the marketing juggernaut of EA behind it? Maybe if it ran tons of commercials and had cinematic motion captured cutscenes.

 

[fantadomat]

Big budget games funded by mainstream publishers sell more copies than indie games that exist only because bunch of people gathered coin into a hat?

I am shocked. Shocked.

Deadfire's budget should be comparable to if not greater than KotOR 2's and NWN2's.

Definitely more expensive than DS3, which also sold a lot more than PoE2.

I just tried to replay dragon siege 3,must say the game is a lot worst than PoE2,still better writing tho.

 

[Roguey]

Those are Big Publisher games so you really can't compare them to Deadfire, which was largely crowdfunded. It just not an AAA game.

NWN1/2, well that was a different time, and it was sold at almost every store that sold software- back when people actually bought PC games in stores.

Was anyone really expecting Deadfire to do better than any Dragon Age game, with the marketing juggernaut of EA behind it? Maybe if it ran tons of commercials and had cinematic motion captured cutscenes.

I'm not talking about comparing sales to sales, I'm talking return on investment. Deadfire's ROI was worse than all those I listed. Obsidian should do a lot of thinking about how thoroughly they mismanaged this thing they created and owned, a failure that is entirely theirs.

 

[Quillon]

And I blame 2D/Iso engine. If it was 3D with "cinematic convos" like NWN2/DAO along with its full VO, it'd have sold 1 million by now :D

 

[The Avatar]

Maybe, but their budget would have had to been 2x what it was.

 

[Rev]

Big budget games funded by mainstream publishers sell more copies than indie games that exist only because bunch of people gathered coin into a hat?

I am shocked. Shocked.

Deadfire's budget should be comparable to if not greater than KotOR 2's and NWN2's.

It's not really a fair comparison imo. KotOR II budget may have been not that bigger than PoE2 but it was an AAA rpg back then, and PoE2 is nothing like that. And KotOR II budget was on the lower end only because they made the game in like a year (and by using the assets BioWare already made for the first one), getting a rushed game in return.
Also, PoE2 probably have a higher budget than BG2 which was one of the biggest rpg those years, but budgets have now gone way upwards in the vg industry. If you had a 10 million dollar budget in 2000 then you were making an AAA or an almost-AAA, now you're nowhere near that, and real AAA cost at least 50 millions if not even more.

 

[Invictus]

So everybody keeps saying that Deadfire was a sales dud... got some hard data on that? And can anybody compare that with the original Pillars?

 

[J_C]

So everybody keeps saying that Deadfire was a sales dud... got some hard data on that? And can anybody compare that with the original Pillars?

We have daily player numbers and data extrapolated from achievement numbers. And we try to be clever based on those. But everything suggests it sold around 200-300K everything combined.

I'm not sure I've got the numbers right, but this is how I see this. Let's be generous and assume 280.000 copies with Steam, GOG and other sites.
At a price of $45, that's 45x280.000 = 12.600.000.
Steam's and other's site cut (30%) = 3.780.000
Taxes (I'm ont sure about american taxes, but maybe 10%?) = 1.260.000

That leaves us with 7.560.000. Game's budget could be around 10 million, of which 4 milion is crowdfunded. So Obsidians own contribution is 6 million, which at this point Obsidian has broken even, even if we take some more expenses into account (distribution costs and publisher PR). Which is a disappointment after PoE1, but it is not losing money at least.

 

[Flou]

Deadfire's budget should be comparable to if not greater than KotOR 2's and NWN2's.

Not if you count the dollars spent on marketing. Obsidian and Versus Evil did hardly any marketing for Deadfire. NWN2 and Kotor 2 got plenty of marketing.

 

[markec]

So everybody keeps saying that Deadfire was a sales dud... got some hard data on that? And can anybody compare that with the original Pillars?

We have daily player numbers and data extrapolated from achievement numbers. And we try to be clever based on those. But everything suggests it sold around 200-300K everything combined.

I'm not sure I've got the numbers right, but this is how I see this. Let's be generous and assume 280.000 copies with Steam, GOG and other sites.
At a price of $45, that's 45x280.000 = 12.600.000.
Steam's and other's site cut (30%) = 3.780.000
Taxes (I'm ont sure about american taxes, but maybe 10%?) = 1.260.000

That leaves us with 7.560.000. Game's budget could be around 10 million, of which 4 milion is crowdfunded. So Obsidians own contribution is 6 million, which at this point Obsidian has broken even, even if we take some more expenses into account (distribution costs and publisher PR). Which is a disappointment after PoE1, but it is not losing money at least.

You forget that Fig takes a big chunk of profits.

 

[ArchAngel]

NWN2, KotOR, KotOR 2, DA, DA2, and DAI

Big budget games funded by mainstream publishers sell more copies than indie games that exist only because bunch of people gathered coin into a hat?

I am shocked. Shocked.

With that kind of negative outlook it is no wonder you got deownered by Feargus.

 

[Cross]

Yes, we've established Baldur's Gate was a huge success. But every other RTwP RPG hasn't been particularly succesful. Somehow from this you draw the conclusion that RTwP RPGs have far more appeal and sales potential than turn-based RPGs, even though there have been tons of succesful turn-based RPGs for as long as the genre has existed.

Yeah and you dismiss NWN, NWN2, KotOR, KotOR 2, DA, DA2, and DAI on technicalities even though they're all rtwp and million+ sellers (and if you think any one of those would have sold more if they were turn based you'd probably be wrong) and we're going in circles since I already noted that there's not a single turn based RPG that achieved BG sales until D:OS.

Most of the people who played the Kotors and the DA's did so on consoles using a controller. Which meant that they didn't manage their party, but simply played them like a single-character action RPG while the party AI handled the rest (and for that matter, so did most PC players probably, thanks to the terrible interfaces of these games). And NWN was a single character game. So no, the success of those games wasn't becaue they were RTwP.

You continue to dodge my question, so I'll ask it again: why do you think turn-based RPGs continue to be made by all sorts of different developers, but why has nobody else made RTwP RPGs (outside of the Freedom Force games)? Do you think it's easier to market the rare subgenre of RTwP RPGs of which there exist only about a dozen of than it is to market a turn-based RPG, of which there exist thousands of and which almost anybody is like to have played one of at some point in their lives?

 

[Mexi]

So everybody keeps saying that Deadfire was a sales dud... got some hard data on that? And can anybody compare that with the original Pillars?

We have daily player numbers and data extrapolated from achievement numbers. And we try to be clever based on those. But everything suggests it sold around 200-300K everything combined.

I'm not sure I've got the numbers right, but this is how I see this. Let's be generous and assume 280.000 copies with Steam, GOG and other sites.
At a price of $45, that's 45x280.000 = 12.600.000.
Steam's and other's site cut (30%) = 3.780.000
Taxes (I'm ont sure about american taxes, but maybe 10%?) = 1.260.000

That leaves us with 7.560.000. Game's budget could be around 10 million, of which 4 milion is crowdfunded. So Obsidians own contribution is 6 million, which at this point Obsidian has broken even, even if we take some more expenses into account (distribution costs and publisher PR). Which is a disappointment after PoE1, but it is not losing money at least.

I wonder how many bought the game but aren't playing to still wait for patches/finishing PoE: I. I crowdfunded the game, but I haven't even played it yet, nor even chose my service to download from.

 

[Lockkaliber]

https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2018...-precise-player-count-for-thousands-of-games/

Pillars of Eternity II: Deadfire,"203,867"

edit: this has to be a pretty big flop for Obsidian. Imminent layoffs detected.

edit2: oh, it was already posted. oh well.

 

[J_C]

https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2018...-precise-player-count-for-thousands-of-games/

Pillars of Eternity II: Deadfire,"203,867"

edit: this has to be a pretty big flop for Obsidian. Imminent layoffs detected.

edit2: oh, it was already posted. oh well.

The game probably broke even.

 

[Quillon]

And they were talking about even lower budget(around 2M$) games after Pillars 1's success, that would sell 200-250k and would "still" be good business <their words

 

[Urthor]

Breaking even isn't particularly acceptable.

The commercial rate of return for games is like 15-20% on games, you are tying up capital for 2-4 years for an incredibly risky proposition. A game is like a film, it expected to make back at least half again of its budget, because you have to earn more than just writing someone a home loan for 8% for 4 years and account for the risk factor.

In the FIG investor options, as an investment PoE only really made sense to the FIG investors at around 600-700k lifetime sales at an average price of $25 dollars. Granted, there are steam sales and DLC to come, but 200k base on release sales is still too low for Deadfire to scrape over that line.

Nobody is going to give Obsidian their money on FIG for another investment again that's for sure, they got 2 million or somesuch from all those whale investors and rich silicon valley superfans.

 

[Strange Fellow]

why do you think turn-based RPGs continue to be made by all sorts of different developers, but why has nobody else made RTwP RPGs (outside of the Freedom Force games)?

You mean those 3-4 five-man-team indies working from their living rooms? Underrail was supposed to be RTwP you know.

 

[Cross]

why do you think turn-based RPGs continue to be made by all sorts of different developers, but why has nobody else made RTwP RPGs (outside of the Freedom Force games)?

You mean those 3-4 five-man-team indies working from their living rooms?

I must have imagined Blackguards, the Expeditions series, the Divinity: Original Sin games, the Shadowrun Returns series, Jeff Vogel's games and countless other turn-based RPGs.

Not only are there far fewer RtwP games, but they are all:

• Bioware games
• games made by other developers for the same license as Bioware games (D&D/Star Wars) utilizing Bioware's engine for obvious practical reasons (Black Isle/Obsidian)
• nostalgia-laden spiritual successors to Bioware game (PoE)

Unlike other subgenres of RPGs, there has never been an RTwP 'scene' that existed independently of Bioware. This is not the sign of a thriving subgenre with widespread appeal. Is it any surprise that Tyranny and Deadfire flopped?

Underrail was supposed to be RTwP you know.

And Diablo was supposed to be turn-based. We're talking about games as they actually exist.

 

[Flou]

Breaking even isn't particularly acceptable.

The commercial rate of return for games is like 15-20% on games, you are tying up capital for 2-4 years for an incredibly risky proposition. A game is like a film, it expected to make back at least half again of its budget, because you have to earn more than just writing someone a home loan for 8% for 4 years and account for the risk factor.

In the FIG investor options, as an investment PoE only really made sense to the FIG investors at around 600-700k lifetime sales at an average price of $25 dollars. Granted, there are steam sales and DLC to come, but 200k base on release sales is still too low for Deadfire to scrape over that line.

Nobody is going to give Obsidian their money on FIG for another investment again that's for sure, they got 2 million or somesuch from all those whale investors and rich silicon valley superfans.

Breaking even is accetable for Obsidian. Investors, depends on the investor. Sure, everyone would love to make more money, but there's no such thing as no risk investing. There's always risks if you are looking for a quick buck.
Deadfire will keep making money to both Obsidian and the investors, just not at a pace they would have hoped for. Eventually the game will make profit for all parties involved.

They had people lining up to invest on the game. It just means they will have to be conservative with the budget and really actually sell the game to the investors and to actual gamers. Once they put the bar lower on how many copies you need to sell before investors can get profit, you have huge line of investors filling to give it a shot.

 

[Strange Fellow]

I must have imagined Blackguards, the Expeditions series, the Divinity: Original Sin games, the Shadowrun Returns series, Jeff Vogel's games and countless other turn-based RPGs.

The Shadowruns! Knew I'd forgotten something. Anyway, Vogel remakes don't count. They aren't new games, and they fall under the umbrella of tiny indie anyway. Blackguards, I don't know. I suppose it is technically an RPG, so I won't argue with this one. You can't just dismiss RTwP games as Obsidian and Bioware games either, since they've arguably made more games this millennium than there have been worthwhile TB RPGs.

Of course POE was pandering to nostalgia, that's nothing to hold against it, seeing as it worked. Personally, I think Deadfire sold less well because the first game kind of sucked. Dunno about Tyranny flopping, I was under the impression that it did all right.

The reason I bring up Underrail is because Styg originally set out to create a RTwP game, but reconsidered when he found that the mechanics were more suited to a turn based system. The reason why I don't count small indies like this is because they have the freedom to do whatever the fuck they want.
Unlike Sawyer & co., these people have the luxury of trying to make their dream game. Their dream game is often turn based because turn based is superior - not because it's more popular.

 

[Roguey]

You continue to dodge my question, so I'll ask it again: why do you think turn-based RPGs continue to be made by all sorts of different developers, but why has nobody else made RTwP RPGs (outside of the Freedom Force games)? Do you think it's easier to market the rare subgenre of RTwP RPGs of which there exist only about a dozen of than it is to market a turn-based RPG, of which there exist thousands of and which almost anybody is like to have played one of at some point in their lives?

It's easier to make a turn based RPG. Real time with pause requires more effort, especially all the effort required to make it feel good (even if no one is ever 100% successful at this task).

Additionally, those turn based RPGs also happen to have lower requirements to be a success, with the exception of D:OS 2 with its AAA budget. It's swell to have developers around satisfied with "merely" tens or hundreds of thousands of sales, but that's not Obsidian (or Larian or even inXile much to their frustration). Obsidian wanted to ride that million or bust train into the big payoff, and despite a strong start with their first title, they busted.

edit: this has to be a pretty big flop for Obsidian. Imminent layoffs detected.

Lindsey Laney was already laid off. Can't afford to have an artist lounging about drawing a ton of portraits anymore.

 

[Dodo1610]

Obsidian has to look at Original Sin 2 which has sold over 1.7 million copies. They have unique turn based combat, the Origin system, better voice acting, optional coop and better wrting. While Obsidian tries to make so called spiritual successors to Bioware games, Larian takes the things that made these games good and leaves out the things that did not. I am convinced POE1 simply sold well because of nostalgia. People bought it because they thought they want a Baldurs Gate 3 or Neverwinter Nights 3 and then found out that there is reason these games were never made.

 

[Strange Fellow]

Wow.

We are still debating if PoE was unsuccessful for the mechanics.

PoE was not unsuccessful.

While Obsidian tries to make so called spiritual successor to Bioware games, Larian takes the things that made these games good

Yeah, like turn-based combat.