Where will RPGs be in 20 years in the future?

[Stavrophore]

With current trends in the RPG industry being the way they are, what will RPGs look like 20 years from now? Will incline or decline be more preeminent? Will RPGs even exist then?

There won't be any RPGs in codex sense in 20 years from now.

 

[Iznaliu]

There won't be any RPGs in codex sense in 20 years from now.

What is the Codex sense according to you? What distinguishes from any other relevant senses of the word "RPG"?

 

[adrix89]

Dwarf Fortress beta will be released. The feature ToDo list will be even larger but to all intents and purposes it will simulate a world to the tiniest of details.
The interface will still be a mess but a hack client that directly hooks into the game and is used as a terminal between the game will have awesome interface and fancy graphics.

All other games will be full of decline thus no point in discussing.

 

[Severian Silk]

In 20 years mods will fix it.

 

[Iznaliu]

All other games will be full of decline thus no point in discussing.

There is a reason for discussing decline; incline can arise from it.

 

[Grumpy Grognard]

With current trends in the RPG industry being the way they are, what will RPGs look like 20 years from now? Will incline or decline be more preeminent? Will RPGs even exist then?

Pundits will claim that PC, indie and RPGs are dead. Then, a crowdfunding campaign will reboot the RTWP genre. VR/AR stuff will probably be on the market for another doomed cycle. Game/platform-spanning/crossing avatars maybe. Fallout X / XI will be shit, but the plucky crew who make Fallout: The Old Downunder will get critical acclaim, and be held up as a standard that will be largely ignored by the main FO franchise. Grimoire 2 will be in pre-alpha.

 

[anvi]

Indie games will just grow and grow. Look at DOS2. There is also a chance that some talented indie team will destroy some huge budget mainstream bloated dev team in sales. It has happened before and it will happen again, and it changes the future of gaming. So say DOS3 is even bigger again and their team grows even more. Meanwhile people start getting bored of the mass produced Fallout and Elder Scrolls games that have no innovation. By DOS4 and Elder Scrolls 8, they both start competing for sales and DOS wins, and yet it will be made with one tenth of the budget. More private investors and publishers start to question the huge budget, dumb mainstream philosophy and bigger budgets will start going to indie devs who make real games for real gamers and have a higher return on investment.

And even without any big wins like that, it will happen anyway. There will always be many millions of plebs just waiting for the next GTA, CoD, Elder Scrolls, Mass Effect, etc. But the top end mainstream games are an arms race. The budgets grow more and more enormous. You can't make one of those games would spending huge amounts on music score, professional voice actors, super high end graphics engine and graphics assets, and it has to be a big game too, and then it needs tens of millions to be spent on all the full screen ads for every gaming website and all the paid for reviews. It makes money in the end but the costs are huge. Meanwhile some small team makes an indie gem that catches on like Minecrap and makes 2 billion dollars for a team of 3 people working from home.

The gaming audience is just so big now. Niche indie games don't need to serve a small audience anymore. With some luck and word of mouth they can be huge.

 

[Sneaky Seal]

Indie games will just grow and grow. Look at DOS2. There is also a chance that some talented indie team will destroy some huge budget mainstream bloated dev team in sales. It has happened before and it will happen again, and it changes the future of gaming. So say DOS3 is even bigger again and their team grows even more. Meanwhile people start getting bored of the mass produced Fallout and Elder Scrolls games that have no innovation. By DOS4 and Elder Scrolls 8, they both start competing for sales and DOS wins, and yet it will be made with one tenth of the budget. More private investors and publishers start to question the huge budget, dumb mainstream philosophy and bigger budgets will start going to indie devs who make real games for real gamers and have a higher return on investment.

And even without any big wins like that, it will happen anyway. There will always be many millions of plebs just waiting for the next GTA, CoD, Elder Scrolls, Mass Effect, etc. But the top end mainstream games are an arms race. The budgets grow more and more enormous. You can't make one of those games would spending huge amounts on music score, professional voice actors, super high end graphics engine and graphics assets, and it has to be a big game too, and then it needs tens of millions to be spent on all the full screen ads for every gaming website and all the paid for reviews. It makes money in the end but the costs are huge. Meanwhile some small team makes an indie gem that catches on like Minecrap and makes 2 billion dollars for a team of 3 people working from home.

The gaming audience is just so big now. Niche indie games don't need to serve a small audience anymore. With some luck and word of mouth they can be huge.

It's the old "You either die a hero, or live long enough to become a villain". I mean, look at CD Project RED - I feel (and this is a personal opinion here) that they are slowly but steadily turning into a slow inefficient corporation.

 

[Iznaliu]

I mean, look at CD Project RED - I feel (and this is a personal opinion here) that they are slowly but steadily turning into a slow inefficient corporation.

Their fall will be like Paradox's; suddenly they will do something really shitty, and people will realise they are just the same as EA and its ilk.

 

[adrix89]

To be fair there is some opportunity for a mid level publisher between Indies and AAA.
Indies do not have much budget and organization and one bad release and their dead. Just look at what happened with Arcen Games.
A publisher can average the risk out over multiple developers and games and in exchange have some solid franchises to be their money maker when they do get a "hit".
From a experimental low budget game to a more polished sequel with higher budget.

Just not fucking Paradox. Paradox is shit.