Just butting in here....
True to some degree. However, comparing to Oblivion, Morrowind was a masterpiece.
I wouldn't go that far. Morrowind was okay, but it was more how much the design in Oblivion was godawful than how great a piece of work Morrowind was. I'd be more likely to say that compared to Oblivion, Morrowind was a complex and interesting game.
It's true that Oblivion sold a shitload, but it sold on hype alone and I'm sure that Bethesda is well aware of it.
That's an assumption I'd like to believe. In fact, it's very likely true that Bethesda knows Oblivion has no depth. But what Bethesda knows doesn't matter here. It's what the gaming public *knows*. They *know* Oblivion is already in the top tens of Top 100 Best Games of All Time. They *know* it was released to nigh-universal critical acclaim. Many *know* it as the best RPG with the most options they've ever played. They don't necessarily need hype anymore when the hype from Oblivion has somehow mutated into this belief that it was a spectacular game. They've used hype, and general ignorance, to set the benchmark for quality. Now their hyped trash is "a brilliant gaming masterpiece". Non-Bethesda examples of this include God of War, Metal Gear Solid 2-4, Final Fantasy, and Halo 2. The hype just mutates and self-perpetuates. Pretty brilliant strategy.
I don't think that they can pull another Oblivion again.
I think they already are. The media has everything hook, line, and sinker. They've generally convinced the gaming populous that this game is "awesome" and have scored a metric shit-ton of preorders. And even if they ship out Oblivion with Guns, they won't have a dissatisfied customer base, because said customers already think Oblivion is the best RPG ever. Even if they have a few "that was disappointing", or "those Fallout fans were right" threads across forums or on public review sites, it won't matter because they'll be laughing their way to the bank.
You think people have gotten savvy to Bethesda's tricks, and I say you're right. But those people are few in number, and there's always fresh fish.
This trick doesn't work twice.
Final Fantasy is now on the thirteenth main title. It can go far more than twice.
So, it's quite possible that Fallout 3 will be a much better game than Oblivion and a better game than Morrowind.
But it will still be a Bethesda game, full of the same tropes and pitfalls as every other one.
There are quite a few facts supporting this theory
Fargoth's Gold? Anything Mr. Smiley Face Dude ever said?
Even at this point you have enough information to decide whether or not you want to play this game.
Yes, and no. I think some people have the information to make that decision, depending on their preferences, and others don't. A person only concerned with core mechanics has everything they need, but a more content-focused man like myself is in a bit of a haze here. I see some good ideas, but I also see those ideas either clouded in stupidity, or counterbalanced by terrible other ideas. I can stomach C-grade shooter combat, poor dialogue, and the butchery of the setting if there was a good ratio of interesting content to pointless busyquests. Thing is, I have no idea what the quality of the content is and nobody is giving me a good idea. Sure, Vault 106 sounds good at best (despite seeming too much like a System Shock ripoff with an annoying twist) but how do I know what the rest of it will be like? Is it going to be one or two interesting locations and a sea of uninteresting ones a la Morrowind and Oblivion? If so, it will be a wasted purchase, and probably a waste of time as a rental. And this i the type of thing a preview or a demo can't tell you, and most reviews won't even think of.