PoE Sales Analysis Thread

[Grape_You_In_the_Mouth]

From the too-huge PoE threads, I'm very interested in how we can know potential sales figures of PoE. No one should have to sift through all the scummy messages on those threads, so this is for anyone else interested in creating a go-to place for it.

So far I've seen:

Steam player stats (~40k concurrent users)
Steam top seller lists (Right below GTA5, an embarrassment to humanity)
(perhaps best of all) Steam % of backers who own the game (or is it playing the game?) - This allows us to back into how many potential sales have been made, as we know ~77,000 backers funded PoE.

A sentiment indicator would be google trends for "pillars of eternity"

Let's scale the incliiiiiine

 

[Infinitron]

Seems like they've sold at least 200,000 units. That's more than D:OS had in the same amount of time: http://www.rpgcodex.net/article.php?id=9519

 

[tuluse]

Keep in mind backers could redeem with GOG or not at all. So backer achievement is not a perfect measure.

Still, I did some math. If you assume 35k backer redeemed on steam, with 20% backer achievement that 175k in sales.

 

[Infinitron]

If you assume 35k backer redeemed on steam

That seems a tad too conservative.

 

[tuluse]

If you assume 35k backer redeemed on steam

That seems a tad too conservative.

Maybe. I figured 25% hadn't redeemed yet and 25% went GOG.

It's definitely conservative, but it gives us a nice lower bound to look at.


For example, if Obsidian gets $30 per steam copy, that's a cool 5 million dollar check they'll be getting. So between 5-10 million from Steam.

 

[Jarpie]

Plus crpgs have usually been slow burners, rather than quick sellers, I'd imagine it selling well in the long run.

 

[Roguey]

I am of course super-pleased that the max concurrent users is more than twice as Wasteland 2's max and almost twice as much as Original Sin. Urquhart showing Fargo and Vincke how it's done.

My belief that it could potentially get close to or hit six digits was too optimistic of course.

 

[tuluse]

I am of course super-pleased that the max concurrent users is more than twice as Wasteland 2's max and almost twice as much as Original Sin. Urquhart showing Fargo and Vincke how it's done.

My belief that it could potentially get close to or hit six digits was too optimistic of course.

I'm expecting 1 million in 12 months. I'm also expecting long term D:OS and PoE sales to be close to each other and WL2 to lag behind based on my own personal moment to moment enjoyment of each game.

Maybe WL2 GotY edition will really knock it out of the park though.

 

[Roguey]

I'm expecting 1 million in 12 months. I'm also expecting long term D:OS and PoE sales to be close to each other and WL2 to lag behind based on my own personal moment to moment enjoyment of each game.

Maybe WL2 GotY edition will really knock it out of the park though.

Console sales for both D:OS and Wasteland 2 are going to be interesting. Could end up putting them both over Pillars overall.

 

[Jaesun]

Until PoE goes on the console....

 

[Morality Games]

Plus crpgs have usually been slow burners, rather than quick sellers, I'd imagine it selling well in the long run.

If it sold 200k its already sold well.

Until PoE goes on the console....

That sounds ... difficult.

 

[Mustawd]

Plus crpgs have usually been slow burners, rather than quick sellers, I'd imagine it selling well in the long run.

If it sold 200k its already sold well.

How do you figure?

I am of course super-pleased that the max concurrent users is more than twice as Wasteland 2's max and almost twice as much as Original Sin. Urquhart showing Fargo and Vincke how it's done.

My belief that it could potentially get close to or hit six digits was too optimistic of course.

I'm expecting 1 million in 12 months. I'm also expecting long term D:OS and PoE sales to be close to each other and WL2 to lag behind based on my own personal moment to moment enjoyment of each game.

Maybe WL2 GotY edition will really knock it out of the park though.

I'd expect POE to do slightly better than D:OS. I mean almost any mention of POE requires some mention of the old IE games, which will help build hype.

 

[Morality Games]

How do you figure?

Because, it made over a 100% of its budget in profit after taxes.

 

[Makabb]

. Urquhart showing Fargo and Vincke how it's done.
.

Hello Mr.Urquhart, nice to have you with us on Rpg Codex forum.

 

[WalkinDude]

How do you count sales with some of the higher tier backers? I received multiple digital keys along with my physical game - does that count as multiple sales?

 

[Infinitron]

How do you count sales with some of the higher tier backers? I received multiple digital keys along with my physical game - does that count as multiple sales?

It doesn't count as any sales. We're talking strictly post-release.

But of course people with multiple keys will introduce some inaccuracy when trying to determine number of sales using the Kickstarter backer achievement and the Kickstarter backer count.

 

[Rostere]

Calling Anthony Davis. This is relevant to our Codexian interests. Maybe you could ask around at Obsidian, firstly whether sales has exceeded expectations or not, secondly about more concrete numbers, as exact as possible . Did Obsidian take any loans to fund this, or was it all Kickstarter money?

Other interesting things to know: breakdown of sales between Steam/GOG/Others. Breakdown of backer key redemption between Steam and GOG.

 

[Jaesun]

Obsidian will make a public statement on sales some time (more than likely after hitting a certain milestone number). It's not something Anthony can do.

 

[Bubbles]

He could promise to tell us the number as soon as he has more brofists than units sold.

 

[Rostere]

Obsidian will make a public statement on sales some time (more than likely after hitting a certain milestone number). It's not something Anthony can do.

Yes, this is how it likely will be. IMO they should try to be more open if they are already sitting on those numbers.

Provided the numbers aren't awful. On the other hand, if the numbers are good, they are going to want everyone to know how well this type of game sells.

 

[Renegen]

If we're going to do speculation, let's do it well. D:OS never had more than 22k concurrent steam players, PoE had a peak of 41k. The most Dark Souls 2 had was 80k and very quickly fell to 20k, so this looks really good for PoE.

 

[dukeofwhales]

If we're going to do speculation, let's do it well. D:OS never had more than 22k concurrent steam players, PoE had a peak of 41k. The most Dark Souls 2 had was 80k and very quickly fell to 20k, so this looks really good for PoE.

But D:OS didn't have lots of hype leading up to release the way PoE did, and had considerably less Kickstarter backers than PoE.

 

[AN4RCHID]

Plus crpgs have usually been slow burners, rather than quick sellers, I'd imagine it selling well in the long run.

Especially with PoE expansions that you can carry your old character into. I expect that will bring a lot of new players into the first game. And I assume the expansion content will be even better than the base game, so that should just keep hype building. Plus dem bundle deals.

You finally made it, Fergie...

 

[Haba]

Time to sell the company and retire?

 

[Volourn]

"But D:OS didn't have lots of hype leading up to release the way PoE did"

BULLSHITZ.