[LP CYOA] 傳

[Nevill]

Tigranes, good points all around.

We know from the homeless man that MIB was not disguised, but wore a mask. If Xiaofang was the one who stopped the man, he should indeed know him very well to recognize him.

The explanation of the assassin panicking and switching the tool of murder is plausible as well - but it does place Fu Xia at the top of the suspects list along with Zheng and Xiaofang. Even if Zheng was the last person seen with Du Yao, he could have had an alibi at a time of murder. Fu Xia couldn't.

I think we have established that MIB didn't try to move Xiaofang to the sickhouse (he left him for dead), but Yunzi did (this is Youxia City - no one else would be motivated to).

So, to reiterate.

- Fu Xia has no alibi.
- Fu Xia has a constable's sword.
- The murderer was injured. Fu Xia had light injuries when he got back.
- Xiaofang was seen arguing with the masked man. Since the man was masked, he should have known him well enough to identify him and strike a conversation - or be in cahoots with him. Unless the man spoke to the eunuch first.
- Fu Xia really does make some astonishingly stupid observations that try to obfuscate the identity of the MIB, or of the sword used to wound Du Yao, or of the needle marks found on his body.
- Suein thinks it is either Fu Xia, Xiaofang, or both.
- Zheng thinks Xiaofang either betrayed us, or run afoul of someone who knew of his role. The first part apparently does not apply.

These points taken together make Fu Xia an obvious suspect. But the case is still bigger than that.

 

[Absinthe]

Hm, that rules out the possibility of it being a Xueguizi poison. There is some serious shit going on there to find a Xueguizi technique with a Jinkong sect framejob and a poison that even the Wudu do not know of.

But the case is still bigger than that.

Our investigation is bigger than that, but I think the court case isn't.

I think from another metagame perspective, we can see that our investigation needs to continue after the trial, and both A and B throw up roadblocks to the investigation (no more Jiang Zheng or we leave Youxia City), so C is the choice we need.

 

[ERYFKRAD]

Tigranes , surely with all this reasoning you can see that the duck did it?

 

[Baltika9]

These points taken together make Fu Xia an obvious suspect. But the case is still bigger than that.

No, I don't think this is just Fu Xia. This isn't even one person. As Absinthe said, this:

Hm, that rules out the possibility of it being a Xueguizi poison. There is some serious shit going on there to find a Xueguizi technique with a Jinkong sect framejob and a poison that even the Wudu do not know of.

This is some heavy shit here. Fu Xia is at most a part of the plan, but he's not the perp. If he's involved at all.

 

[Nevill]

No, I don't think this is just Fu Xia. This isn't even one person.

Note that I didn't say 'the culprit'. He is a suspect allright, perhaps a too obvious one.

In other words, the assailant's original plan was probably to kill Du Yao with a sword - a constable's sword, or a good copy of it - and thereby frame the constabulary - or even Chief Jiang personally, given the timing of the kill. If Jiang never returned, Du Yao's body would ultimately have been found, with Chief Jiang the last known man in the room. Clearly, what happened is that Du Yao resisted, and/or the assailant noticed Jiang's entrance, and panicking, pulled out the backup plan of the needles. He then receives injuries from Chief Jiang, and has to escape ASAP.

This is the part of the reasoning I have trouble with. Why would Fu Xia implicate the constables? That puts him under fire as well.

And also, chief said that Du Yao died the moment he entered the room. If we are to take this literally, then it means the assassin murdered Du Yao independently from chief Zheng's entry and Tigranes' reasoning is insufficient to explain it.

 

[Absinthe]

I think Fu Xia is connected to a network, but he would be the perp. Tigranes did a good job of illustrating why Man X is unlikely: Xiaofang recognized this person.

 

[Baltika9]

Xiaofang recognized this person.

And? Xiaofang works for Gao and the Eunuchs, and those people have agents everywhere.

 

[Absinthe]

And? Xiaofang works for Gao and the Eunuchs, and those people have agents everywhere.

Narrative conservation of detail suggests it would have to be someone we know.

This is the part of the reasoning I have trouble with. Why would Fu Xia implicate the constables? That puts him under fire as well.

To manipulate the investigative effort, mostly. If there's only one suspect, we'd immediately look for other possibilities, but if the first suspect pinned with evidence is Jiang Zheng himself the constables could be guided to a convenient second possible culprit during their investigations. Between Jiang Zheng and the Jinkong framejob, Fu Xia could elude notice.

And also, chief said that Du Yao died the moment he entered the room. If we are to take this literally, then it means the assassin murdered Du Yao independently if chief Zheng's entry.

The poison was determined to have killed Du Yao in seconds. If Du Yao was dying when Jiang Zheng saw it, then the poison was probably the assailant's immediate reaction to finish up and get the hell out when Fu Xia entered.

 

[Baltika9]

And? Xiaofang works for Gao and the Eunuchs, and those people have agents everywhere.

Narrative conservation of detail suggests it would have to be someone we know.

Yeah, I'm not a fan of predicting the GM's intentions and voting based off of plot devices, that's just Asking For It. Xiaofang is involved with all sorts of shady people, it's his job, so just because he recognized the dude that stabbed him doesn't necessarily mean that it's Fu Xia. It is plausible, yes, but not a guarantee.

 

[Absinthe]

Let me try a different angle for you. Something absolutely no one has so far managed to answer no matter how many times I raised this issue:

What do you think Fu Xia was up to while he was gone if he wasn't the perp? He couldn't've been brawling the entire time. Those monks had him on the defensive and he came back with only light cuts and bruises.

 

[Baltika9]

Getting the fuck away from them?

 

[Nevill]

Getting the fuck away from them?

Going to the whorehouse and smelling the roses on the way.

The same question could be addressed to Xiaofang - where the hell was he until a homeless man spotted him on the streets?

treave, how far from the mansion is the place where Xiaofang was spotted that night?

It is sad that the most interesting part of the analysis I wanted to read is listed under "Remaining Problems".

 

[Absinthe]

For the entire time? These are drunk monks and it's dark.

 

[Baltika9]

Being drunk certainly didn't stop them from roughing him up. I'm trying to avoid paralysis by analysis here. We can argue about the weather conditions, state of inebriation, drunkenness of the guards in Du Yao's mansion and which way the wind was blowing all we want. Point is, Fu Xia was pursued by pissed off drunken pugilists, it is quite possible that he was shaking them off the entire time he was away.

 

[treave]

treave, how far from the mansion is the place where Xiaofang was spotted that night?

Not very far.

 

[Nevill]

treave, how far from the mansion is the place where Xiaofang was spotted that night?

Not very far.

Was this location between the inn and the mansion, between the restaurant and the mansion, or somewhere else? Does it matter at all?

I am trying to deternine if he was on his way to the mansion as per chief's request (and therefore late), or if he was returning to the inn, or if he was doing his own thing.

 

[treave]

Well, it is somewhat closer to the mansion than the other two locations.

 

[Nevill]

No, I meant, can it be determined from the location if he was going from the restaurant to the mansion (say, he was intercepted and beaten by Jinkong sect members and was running late), or if he was returning from the mansion to the inn (having visited the mansion as per Zheng's request), or if nothing useful could be gathered from it?

 

[treave]

No, you can't.

 

[Absinthe]

Baltika9, excuse me but I seriously doubt that. If you're drunk and it's dark it's stupidly easy to miss shit. It would be trivial to lose them.

 

[Nevill]

Damn, this is getting weirder by the minute.

Another question is where the assailant, whoever it was, got the ice needles and the poison from; but again, it seems clear that if the assailant was somebody we know, they could not have procured it from their immediate environment. It seems whoever is the murderer, they had some sponsors, supporters, masters, in the shadows who could supply them. Well, in the absence of any clear link between any particular person and such factions, it doesn't sway us to one person or another.

Tigranes, I do not believe the needles were prepared beforehand. After all, why bother making ice needles that can melt if you can use regular needles instead? True, they do not leave evidence, but you can just pick the regular needles up after you are done. And if you are in a hurry because someone saw you, well, the lack of needles at a crime scene won't save your case. Why go to such lengths and risk showing you connections off?

We can safely conclude that the one who murdered Du Yao made these needles on the spot through Xueguizi technique. That throws me off, because we did not learn anything that would connect anyone here to Tianshan.

Xuezi is connected, and Xueguizi would be looking for her, so it is plausible they are around, but this is hardly connected to Fu Xia at all who was with the constebulary when the troubles in Tianshan broke out.

The troubles at Tianshan started with the visit from the orthodox sects. If they are involved, we know of only one expert-level poisoner who is associated with the orthodox sects: Qilin's mom. But that is so much of a stretch that I just refuse to continue this line of thought.

 

[Absinthe]

I think Tigranes was asking where he got the technique from; he wasn't suggesting he'd been handed these frozen poison needles.

My guess is still that Fu Xia learned the technique through his employers and that they are connected with the Xueguizi. We really need to investigate this. We don't have the hard facts yet.

But I think we do have enough to declare he's our suspect.

 

[ERYFKRAD]

Eh, Gao Ying did it.

 

[Baltika9]

Gao Ying came to Youxia City after leaving Chang'an. Xiaofang was late because he was meeting up with the boss.

ERYFKRAD is a genius.

 

[treave]