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"I'm going to go on the record and say that I believe the middle class game is dead," he said, before drawing an analogy with the movie business.
"It needs to either be either an event movie – day one, company field trip, Battlefield: LA, we're there. Avatar – we're there. The Other Guys starring Will Ferrell and Marky Mark? Nah, I'll f****** rent that, I don't really care - right?
"Or it has to be an indie film. Black Swan – I'll go and see that. I'll go to The Rialto or I'll go to the AAA Imax movie. The middle one is just gone, and I think the same thing has happened to games."
-Cliff Bleszinski, GDC 2011
"It needs to either be either an event movie – day one, company field trip, Battlefield: LA, we're there. Avatar – we're there. The Other Guys starring Will Ferrell and Marky Mark? Nah, I'll f****** rent that, I don't really care - right?
"Or it has to be an indie film. Black Swan – I'll go and see that. I'll go to The Rialto or I'll go to the AAA Imax movie. The middle one is just gone, and I think the same thing has happened to games."
-Cliff Bleszinski, GDC 2011
In the years leading up to the Kickstarter Revolution of 2012, a conventional wisdom began to develop on the Codex that the only way to rescue the RPG genre and resurrect traditional RPG gameplay was to bring back the mid-sized developer and the "middle class RPG". The AAAs were producing ever more streamlined garbage, while the indies were either stuck in a Jeff Vogel retro rut or just taking forever to release anything. Only mid-sized developers could have the heft to produce truly impressive games, yet without succumbing to mainstream market pressures.
Yet we find ourselves in the middle of 2016 with a whole lot of angry and skeptical people. The reasons for people's disappointment with individual Kickstarted games have been discussed to death. What's interesting to me is the idea that the "middle class RPG" as a whole has lost some of its comparative advantages.
On the indie side of things, games like Underrail and Age of Decadence, considered vaporware jokes a few years ago, have actually gone and been released, and the Codex is still basking in their afterglow. Their main disadvantage, of course, is that it may take another 5 or more years to get more of them. It's unclear if quicker development cycles such as those favored by Whalenought Studios have what it takes to produce equally satisfying games. Depending on what happens to the indie market on Steam, people might feel differently about this in a couple of years. Will more indie RPG developers emerge, or will they flee from an RPG "indiepocalypse" as Aterdux Entertainment seem to be doing?
The AAA side is where things get interesting. There's an impression I'm getting that some people are beginning to think that AAA games are becoming better. Slower growth in the console market has given publishers an incentive to cater to a more mature and experienced existing player base. Ever since the release of Skyrim and the success of sandbox games like Minecraft, the Call of Duty-inspired linear interactive movie model that seemed to be taking over the industry in the late 2000s has been receding. When such games are released today, they're often mocked (see The Order: 1886 and Ryse: Son of Rome).
The open world model comes with its own inanities, as any Bethesda or Ubisoft game shows us, but at its core, it's still a framework that enables a slower-paced, more cerebral gameplay. As a result, we now have people on this forum who admit that they care more about the next open world action-RPG from CD Projekt than they do about the next isometric RPG from inXile.
The combination of open world RPG gameplay with actually good writing and choice & consequence seems to be a new sweet spot, with the potential to become the Codex's "best RPG model" in the future, supplanting the classic Fallout/Infinity Engine model. Its main disadvantage is that there are so few games in this "genre" - it's basically just Fallout: New Vegas and Witcher 3 at this point. It's unclear if the gaming industry has what it takes to produce such games in quantity, despite their success.
What is the fate of the middle class RPG on the Codex? Do we really want to play throwback RPGs forever? Is there a middle ground here perhaps, some way to bridge the gap between the middle class RPG and the "open world with good writing" AAA RPG?