Game News Divinity: Original Sin 2 Kickstarter Update #3: One million dollars! Racial skills are in

[Infinitron]

It won't make 3.5 million dollars.

 

[Fairfax]

These projections are terrible, I dont know why they keep it as a tool in the first place. The projections aren't conservative at all, they take the average including all days so far and generate insane goals.

A more realistic projection is to use percentages for each section (first 3 days, middle days, last 3 days) and daily averages for the middle days. I ran some quick numbers here for D:OS2 using that method.
Extremely conservative: $1.7 million.
Conservative: $1.850 million.
Moderate: $2.05 million.
Optimistic: $2.250 million.
Very optimistic: $2.5 million.
Absolute best case scenario (Bloodstained-like campaign): $3 million.

For this campaign to reach 3.5 million, the first 3 days would have to be just 26% of the total pledge level, and the daily average for the 27 days it has left would have to be $85,789.

The daily average for 5 days after the initial 3 is currently $50,588, but not a single campaign has ever kept that average. Even the Bloodstained campaign dropped from a 99k average during that period to a 75k average for all middle days combined.
If the campaign performs in the exact same way as Bloodstained, which was the best campaign so far with a much wider audience and many other advantages, it'd reach ~$3.05 million. But that's not gonna happen, even if they make the best campaign possible.

It does seem to have much more legs than the recent CRPG campaigns, which is great. With new/revamped tiers, add-ons and the right stretch goals, I do think it can get close to $2.3-2.5 million.

 

[Roguey]

That's the $1.5 million stretch goal:

A homestead isn't a stronghold.

 

[Drowed]

I don't really believe in those things, but, 2mi seems doable with the last day peak in pledges. 3+ seems kinda insane.

 

[Fairfax]

*The daily average for 5 days after the initial 3 is currently $50,588, but not a single campaign has ever kept that average.

By that I meant no campaign has ever kept the average for the first 5 middle days across all of the middle days.

 

[Aenra]

Please tell me your occupation is in some way related to all this math crunching. Cause watching the other half cutting her nails is preferable to this, far as hobbies go.

 

[Irenaeus II]

Please tell me your occupation is in some way related to all this math crunching. Cause watching the other half cutting her nails is preferable to this, far as hobbies go.

Maybe it's his first kickstarter. I remember I really cared about these calculations and forecasts back in late 2012.

 

[Fairfax]

Please tell me your occupation is in some way related to all this math crunching. Cause watching the other half cutting her nails is preferable to this, far as hobbies go.

It is, I'm an economist.

Maybe it's his first kickstarter. I remember I really cared about these calculations and forecasts back in late 2012.

Nah, WL2 was my first. I do find it much less boring than most people, I guess. It is somewhat fascinating to me, being a business model that is still in its infancy.

 

[Irenaeus II]

It is, I'm an economist.


Nah, WL2 was my first. I do find it much less boring than most people, I guess. It is somewhat fascinating to me, being a business model that is still in its infancy.

I'm an economist too. I think this business model has passed its heyday, but good luck.

 

[Fairfax]

I'm an economist too. I think this business model has passed its heyday, but good luck.

Not taking any chances with it myself, I just find it interesting, as I find the gaming industry in general. I don't think it'll ever be as big a some seem to expect, but it could be a viable model to keep a smaller studio running for years.

 

[Aenra]

It is, I'm an economist

Fair enough

I remember I really cared about these calculations

Yeah, was just curious, contemplating how much time this must have taken..then wondered what it would mean for a person to have gone through all that if he was not in a related business..you know?

 

[Darkzone]

*The daily average for 5 days after the initial 3 is currently $50,588, but not a single campaign has ever kept that average.
By that I meant no campaign has ever kept the average for the first 5 middle days across all of the middle days.

Yes that is true, but doesn't mean that much. The average page per day will most probably drop now.