Eternity PoE II: Deadfire Sales Analysis Thread

[jf8350143]

I'll say it again, the Chinese localization for DOS2 just came out this week, that's the reason why it gets a big bump on sales and numbers of people playing. Right now it's the second best selling steam game in China, just below PUBG.

There has been enough Chinese players on steam to make a big difference for this kind of games(relatively niche cRPG) already.

Well the chart has looked steady ever since march though...

May 14th has the highest player numbers for DOS 2 during last week, the day the implant the Chinese localization. And you need to take time zone into account since the Chinese players don't play the games at the same time with Americans.

Besides what's the problem of selling less than DOS2? That game is a juggernaut comparing to other indie games. It sold more than 1 million copies during first 3 months.

 

[Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss]

The only thing that proves a massive investment is how much you spent vs. how much money you have in your coffers.

I will save this quote for future reference.

 

[fantadomat]

SteamSpy is about as reliable as my grandfather's penis.

Well,it did manage to make at least on of your parents.

Well the most important number will be the people playing the game when they release the first DLC. If it is a lot lower than the original number,then the game is dead with no hope for it bouncing back.

 

[fantadomat]

Well i am happy that the game couldn't beat incline

 

[Flou]

Speaking of investment, doesn't bad sales = bad news on the crowdfounding front? I mean I assume they'll be using fig again for another future game. I doubt investors will be as ready to open their wallets after PoE2's performance.

Yup. It would hinder their efforts to raise money for PoE3 on Fig for sure. Making a cheaper game though could still be a viable option. But expecting to investors to put money to a game that needs to sell half a million copies would be out of the question. Maybe tactical turn based game made with few million dollars with the 100k copies as the break even point for investors.

But I bet Feargus won't make that, it would make him look bad asking for so little and he still hates turn based games.

 

[Flou]

The thing is FIG gives them investors, and if the investors get their return on equity on FIG, then the investors will come back for the next game regardless of whether it's deadfire or elephantitis they are crowdfunding. It's actually a fairly good model even if it comes at the cost of losing the Kickstarter brand.

Actually, don't they have to tell the investors how many games they sold? They probably have to do a press release to everyone who pony'd up 1k when that happens.

True, they will have to be open about how copies they've sold. Naturally if the game is selling really weak they don't want the bad press involved right now, since even with the very strong reviews it would hurt them.
But at some point they will have to report to their investors and SEC(?) how well/bad the game has sold.

 

[markec]

Its funny watching Obsidiantards trying so hard brainstorming possible reasons why the game flopped.

So far we had:

The game is a direct sequel.

Its too complex.

Its not complex enough.

Its too easy.

Its not easy enough.

RPGs market is dying.

No market for old school RPGs.

Bad marketing.

Bad publisher.

Lots of bugs.

Using Fig and not Kickstarter.

People waiting for DLC.

Console ports.

Voice acting.

Lack of streamers.

Low completion rates of first game.



Here's the thing, first game was bought by more then one million players yet only 10% of them came back to the sequel.

Sure some of those things might have influenced the poor sales, but the main reason why D:OS2 was success and POE2 is a flop is because D:OS was a good game or a atleast a decent game with potential and POE was a boring piece of shit that only Obsidiantards with low standards and shit taste enjoyed.

 

[TalesfromtheCrypt]

Meanwhile, PoE II already went through the 200K ceiling and continues to sell, while idiot Codexers get hung up on made up nuSteamspy numbers...

 

[Dexter]

Sure some of those things might have influenced the poor sales, but the main reason why D:OS2 was success and POE2 is a flop is because D:OS was a good game or a atleast a decent game with potential and POE was a boring piece of shit that only Obsidiantards with low standards and shit taste enjoyed.

Now now, you don't have to resort to lies.

 

[Curratum]

Meanwhile, PoE II already went through the 200K ceiling and continues to sell, while idiot Codexers get hung up on made up nuSteamspy numbers...

You do of course realize that 33 of those ~200 thousand are Fig backers and are not exactly "sales" per se.

I hate to repeat myself, but... POE2 is currently going for about 50% off on the shittier key reseller websites and the third-party sellers are trying to outbid each other to the bottom, which I believe happens because they are having a hard time selling it even at 24 EUR.

 

[markec]

Sure some of those things might have influenced the poor sales, but the main reason why D:OS2 was success and POE2 is a flop is because D:OS was a good game or a atleast a decent game with potential and POE was a boring piece of shit that only Obsidiantards with low standards and shit taste enjoyed.

Now now, you don't have to resort to lies.

Well atleast its better then POE which, to be fair, is hardly an achievement.

 

[imweasel]

POE2 is currently going for about 50% off on the shittier key reseller websites and the third-party sellers are trying to outbid each other to the bottom, which I believe happens because they are having a hard time selling it even at 24 EUR.

It already dropped down to 22 Euros in keyshops. It was about 24 Euros just two days ago.

 

[Curratum]

Exactly, which is why I cannot imagine how it could possibly be selling in a way that can be considered "ok", whether by fans or by Obsidian.

 

[TalesfromtheCrypt]

Meanwhile, PoE II already went through the 200K ceiling and continues to sell, while idiot Codexers get hung up on made up nuSteamspy numbers...

You do of course realize that 33 of those ~200 thousand are Fig backers and are not exactly "sales" per se.

Well first of all, I don't have any proof for my number, so I was talking about 200K pure sales without the backers.
If you want to refer to the made up garbage steamspy numbers, of course you will have to substract backers to get sales numbers.
It's not 33K though.

My guess would be that at about 10 percent of backers didn't bother to redeem their plegde yet.
I reckon maybe even up to 40 percent of backers redeemed their key on GOG.

I estimate that only about 16,5K backers redeemed their key on steam.

Btw I deducted these numbers by the same method nuSpeamspy uses, it's called pulling stuff out of your ass.

Anyone who believes PoE II has been hovering around 100K owners on Steam for the last days, virtually not selling any new copies, is an idiot.

 

[Curratum]

Well first of all, I don't have any proof for my number, so I was talking about 200K pure sales without the backers.
If you want to refer to the made up garbage steamspy numbers, of course you will have to substract backers to get sales numbers.
It's not 33K though.

My guess would be that at about 10 percent of backers didn't bother to redeem their plegde yet.
I reckon maybe even up to 40 percent of backers redeemed their key on GOG.

I estimate that only about 16,5K backers redeemed their key on steam.

Btw I deducted these numbers by the same method nuSpeamspy uses, it's called pulling stuff out of your ass.

Anyone who believes PoE II has been hovering around 100K owners on Steam for the last days, virtually not selling any new copies, is an idiot.

I don't think I've seen anyone pull numbers out of their rear so quickly!

 

[Mustawd]

Well first of all, I don't have any proof for my number,

Then complains ppl are using steamspy, which most us are not (steamcharts is its own unrelated thing; global top sellers is released by steam).

 

[TalesfromtheCrypt]

Neither global top sellers nor steam charts give an indication that the game has been sitting on its ass at 100K owners for a few days now like a lot of people in this thread seem to assume.
We simply don't know how much it has sold. We can deduct from the top seller charts and the number of concurrent players that's it is definitely not a hit and that it is doing worse than say Battletech (which as admitted by the devs is a big success) or DOS2 (which is this kind of freak-accident one in a million superhit).

BTW at garbage nuSteamspy its back at the 100-200K range. My guess is that its approaching 200K owners on Steam. We don't know anything about GOG, but I'd imagine GOG has a much larger share for a game like this than the overall market average.

 

[Mustawd]

Neither global top sellers nor steam charts give an indication that the game has been sitting on its ass at 100K owners for a few days now like a lot of people in this thread seem to assume.
We simply don't know how much it has sold. We can deduct from the top seller charts and the number of concurrent players that's it is definitely not a hit and that it is doing worse than say Battletech (which as admitted by the devs is a big success) or DOS2 (which is this kind of freak-accident one in a million superhit

I don't think I've seen any actual numbers being thrown around, but I could be wrong. Most ppl assumed it'd be doing better than it has. I mean you had Infinitron saying earlier he expected POE2 to creep back up the global top sellers lis, which now seems unlikely.

 

[TalesfromtheCrypt]

I might getting it mixed up with the Storm of Eothas thread, there's also sales talk there and I see that 100k number being thrown around quite a bit.

 

[Urthor]

The thing is FIG gives them investors, and if the investors get their return on equity on FIG, then the investors will come back for the next game regardless of whether it's deadfire or elephantitis they are crowdfunding. It's actually a fairly good model even if it comes at the cost of losing the Kickstarter brand.

Actually, don't they have to tell the investors how many games they sold? They probably have to do a press release to everyone who pony'd up 1k when that happens.

True, they will have to be open about how copies they've sold. Naturally if the game is selling really weak they don't want the bad press involved right now, since even with the very strong reviews it would hurt them.
But at some point they will have to report to their investors and SEC(?) how well/bad the game has sold.

The game is selling below expectations, but the sheer profit margin might well mean that they aren't making a loss. The original break even point is in the original FIGstarter iirc, and the original FIGstarter was extremely ungenerous to investors, Obsidian will probably finish in the black even if Investors don't.

 

[Keith Brown]

If i remember right they said they were happy with the console sales of the previous game, and Switch owners buy everything

Meanwhile, PoE II already went through the 200K ceiling and continues to sell, while idiot Codexers get hung up on made up nuSteamspy numbers...

You do of course realize that 33 of those ~200 thousand are Fig backers and are not exactly "sales" per se.

I hate to repeat myself, but... POE2 is currently going for about 50% off on the shittier key reseller websites and the third-party sellers are trying to outbid each other to the bottom, which I believe happens because they are having a hard time selling it even at 24 EUR.

You could pre order at that price it has nothing to do how well the game is selling or not. Hell i got Battletech for 15 bucks from a 3rd party site and that game is selling very well.

It's a completely normal thing for 3rd party steam keys to be cheaper.

 

[ArchAngel]

Sequels of A where nostalgia is now not a factor in the sales because that nostalgia wave has already come and gone in the first game.

Do you seriously think that one million people bought PoE because of nostalgia? Maybe the backers, but that is about it.

Backers and nostalgia led people kept the hype on and others latched onto that not knowing what to really expect.
Then PoE was a disappointment to backers, nostalgia people and new players that now knew they do not enjoy this kind of gameplay.
Then PoE2 comes along, everyone knows what kind of shitty game to expect. Backers and nostalgia people are no longer generating hype and people that didn't play PoE got no reason to buy and try PoE2.

 

[TalesfromtheCrypt]

The thing is FIG gives them investors, and if the investors get their return on equity on FIG, then the investors will come back for the next game regardless of whether it's deadfire or elephantitis they are crowdfunding. It's actually a fairly good model even if it comes at the cost of losing the Kickstarter brand.

Actually, don't they have to tell the investors how many games they sold? They probably have to do a press release to everyone who pony'd up 1k when that happens.

True, they will have to be open about how copies they've sold. Naturally if the game is selling really weak they don't want the bad press involved right now, since even with the very strong reviews it would hurt them.
But at some point they will have to report to their investors and SEC(?) how well/bad the game has sold.

The game is selling below expectations, but the sheer profit margin might well mean that they aren't making a loss. The original break even point is in the original FIGstarter iirc, and the original FIGstarter was extremely ungenerous to investors, Obsidian will probably finish in the black even if Investors don't.

Yep, the Fig deal is shitty for investors to the point that it doesn't really make the slightest sense to invest there. I doubt Obs will have to give anything more than a neglectable cut to those poor suckers...

 

[Keith Brown]

Sequels of A where nostalgia is now not a factor in the sales because that nostalgia wave has already come and gone in the first game.

Do you seriously think that one million people bought PoE because of nostalgia? Maybe the backers, but that is about it.

Backers and nostalgia led people kept the hype on and others latched onto that not knowing what to really expect.
Then PoE was a disappointment to backers, nostalgia people and new players that now knew they do not enjoy this kind of gameplay.
Then PoE2 comes along, everyone knows what kind of shitty game to expect. Backers and nostalgia people are no longer generating hype and people that didn't play PoE got no reason to buy and try PoE2.

If this is true how come 80%+ of user reviews are positive recommends even years after the fact? You make it sound like the game came out and everyone hated it when that's measurably untrue.

 

[TalesfromtheCrypt]

PoE 1 was well received. Nobody outside of the Codex gives a crap about that ridiculous "muh IE combat" whining.
Most people can't even define what they like or dislike about combat or any other aspect or gameplay or story.
Its like with people who shat on The Last Jedi (rightly so) but loved The Force Awakens. Totally random.

This place hates real RPGs and tries to sabotage them while buying and playing every piece of shitty console garbage churned out by EA and the likes /roqua