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Vault Dweller

Commissar, Red Star Studio
Developer
Joined
Jan 7, 2003
Messages
28,024
Do you have any survey data or something about what the owners of the game wanted from the gameplay that could explain the sales of DR?
Like I said in the other thread, the main question here is whether DR did well for an indie tactical RPG or failed. If it did as well as it could, then there is nothing we can do here. If it failed then we can do better. All we have are the Steamspy stats:

Telepath Tactics: 4,687 ± 2,161
Voidspire Tactics: 4,166 ± 2,037
Dark Ages: 13,801 ± 3,708
All Walls Must Fall: 6,249 ± 2,495
Panzer Tactics: 33,069 ± 5,740
Heroes Tactics: 86,709 ± 9,294 - free to play

Shadow Tactics is the only exception: 421,828 ± 20,493 but that's a AAA quality title that almost bankrupted the developer (meaning very high budget).

Overall, the main complaints were:

- too difficult on Hard but I refuse to play on Easy because it's humiliating, make Hard easy or else
- ran out of food, don't want to restart
- expected a game like AoD but this game has nothing but combat

We can't do anything about these issues so we'll ignore them and focus on trying to make the next tactical game better for people who like tactical TB combat a lot, play on Hard, and don't mind restarting a few times.
 

MurkyShadow

Glittering gem of hatred
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Quiet interesting information. I do really like this kind of in-depth analysis.
I'll be sure to leave a review on Dungeon Rats, once I have finished it.

It's sad when people measure the game on expectations they set themselves,
in spite of the description which states what there is to expect.

- too difficult on Hard but I refuse to play on Easy because it's humiliating, make Hard easy or else
You seriously have to deal with this kind of feedback? I think you'd go
crazy if you -wouldn't- ignore them. That'd be time consuming and
very likely would lead nowhere.
 

Momock

Augur
Joined
Sep 26, 2014
Messages
644
- too difficult on Hard but I refuse to play on Easy because it's humiliating, make Hard easy or else
- ran out of food, don't want to restart
- expected a game like AoD but this game has nothing but combat

We can't do anything about these issues.
LOL, that's totaly not true. For the first one change the names of the difficulty modes. For the third one put "Tactics" in the fucking name of the game. Done (but there's nothing to do about the second one without changing the game, though).

Just say you don't WANT to do anything about these issues, it's more honnest (and totaly understandable :lol:).
 

Vault Dweller

Commissar, Red Star Studio
Developer
Joined
Jan 7, 2003
Messages
28,024
Change the names why? Because playing as Tough Bastard instead of Murderous Psychopath was so humiliating? There is a reason why games keep getting easier, why Hard became the new Normal and it has nothing to do with the naming conventions.

As for Tactics, it's not like Dungeon Rats sounds like a fine and proper sequel to the Age of Decadence. The store description makes it very clear that it's a combat game that offers nothing but combat, yet some people managed to ignore it, just like they'd ignore the word 'tactics' or any other label.
 

Zanzoken

Arcane
Joined
Dec 16, 2014
Messages
3,558
I love reading stuff like this. Will be adding comments as I go.

Vault Dweller said:
I hoped that Dungeon Rats would sell 100,000 copies in the first year on the strength of the combat system and the low price ($8.99, under $5 during sale events), but in the first 14 months it sold only 33,027 copies at $5.55 avg. Of course, without proper statistics it’s hard to say whether DR did as well as it could under the circumstances or failed miserably.

I will echo the point that this seems wildly optimistic given AoD at 126k sales. But of course we now have the benefit of hindsight where as your prediction did not. DR selling roughly 26% of the units that AoD sold does support your estimate of a 25% core consumer base though, since only the AoD core audience plus hardcore TB tactics players would be interested in DR.

Maybe consider charging more for the next spin-off, say $12. That may sound like a lot given the content, but realistically it's only the price of a movie ticket for something that will net you ~10 hours of entertainment. Plus the majority of people will buy it on sale anyway.

Vault Dweller said:
Whether we would use Kickstarter is frequently asked question, so I might as well address it here since it falls under ‘business decision’ category. We’ve decided not to use Kickstarter... (snip)

I agree with your reasons for not using Kickstarter. Another strike against KS is it's essentially a form of debt financing. You are spending tomorrow's money today, which is risky since there may not be any more money when tomorrow actually gets here, and the Kickstarter well may be dried up if you go back to it again. And it's not free -- KS takes 5% plus processing fees at the outset which eats farther into your budget.

Bootstrapping your first game is hard but I am sure ITS has stronger financial footing because of it.

So if you have something to say, now is the time.

Thanks again for sharing. Your thoughts on joint projects, sequels, spin-offs, TNW -- all of it makes sense to me. Once TNW + its spin-off are out then you'll have 4 games generating revenue for the studio every day (5 if you are getting any residuals from Dead State). You can't survive off the long tail but I'm sure it feels good to know you will be making money off this stuff for the rest of your life.

Good luck and keep fighting the good fight.
 

Vault Dweller

Commissar, Red Star Studio
Developer
Joined
Jan 7, 2003
Messages
28,024
I will echo the point that this seems wildly optimistic given AoD at 126k sales. But of course we now have the benefit of hindsight where as your prediction did not. DR selling roughly 26% of the units that AoD sold does support your estimate of a 25% core consumer base though, since only the AoD core audience plus hardcore TB tactics players would be interested in DR.
I thought that the low price (a $5 game during sale events) and focus on combat would widen the net and appeal to people who may have never heard about AoD, thus expanding the audience and boosting AoD sales (i.e. leading them from DR to AoD, not the other way around). It might have worked but the media practically ignored it (not that I blame them).

It would be interesting to compare how many people who have AoD also have DR in their Steam libraries.

Maybe consider charging more for the next spin-off, say $12.
Definitely.
 

MRY

Wormwood Studios
Developer
Joined
Aug 15, 2012
Messages
5,703
Location
California
And it's not free -- KS takes 5% plus processing fees at the outset which eats farther into your budget.
This part at least is not quite right. I believe all-in on KSer takes less than Steam does, and per WEG, Steam does charge the developer for the keys to give to backers. So a copy "sold" on KSer is probably less eaten into than it would be if sold directly on Steam.

I don't think the debt financing point is quite right, either, since KSer customers often pay more up front than they would via Steam. The problem with debt financing is that the Day 1 dollar is actually worth something less than a future Day N dollar because by Day N you need to pay back not just the $1 but also the interest. So $10k in debt financing at 5% interest for a 3 year development means that you forgoing ~$11.5k in sales upon release. With KSer, though, it's often the opposite. You get more at Day 1 than you are forgoing by Day N.

That said, I have my own tremendous issues with Kickstarter, which I've written about elsewhere. The obvious ones are that most of the time, developers take customers' money by using high-pressure sales tactics (sometimes without knowing these are high-pressure sales tactics, but sometimes with actual malice) and making promises that they cannot keep (sometimes without knowing they will break them, but sometimes with actual malice). Further, if exploiting and betraying your greatest supporters weren't bad enough, most Kickstarter projects wind up giving backers some modicum of control over the project. That can happen by giving them a virtual can of spraypaint and inviting them to put a graffito in the game -- a character, a landmark, an enemy -- but it can also happen by simply creating a forum in which people who paid you make demands on how their money will be spent. The spirit behind those demands can be reasonable or unreasonable, and acceding to them may be honorable or craven, depending on what's being demanded. But a funding mechanism that in theory is supposed to give some great artistic freedom to the developer can have the opposite effect.

I still think Kickstarter is basically a force for good on the consumer end of things. I'm glad I did my "pay forward" thing with Primordia's proceeds and backed a bazillion projects, and Kickstarter obviously brought many great games to market. But I'm also glad that Vince is avoiding that path; it should be a last resort, not a frolic or experiment.
 

Vault Dweller

Commissar, Red Star Studio
Developer
Joined
Jan 7, 2003
Messages
28,024
Two points to consider:

- Yes, you get more at Day 1 on KS, but you have to pay (often more than you realize) in extra cost and development time for the stretch goals and physical rewards. See Obsidian's mega-dungeon, a stronghold, another major city, and expandion they had to promise to generate excitement and pledges.
- Yes, Steam keys are free but reviews written by the key holders no longer count toward the rating, so by giving keys to your backers (your most enthusiastic supporters) you lose hundreds of positive reviews.
 

Zanzoken

Arcane
Joined
Dec 16, 2014
Messages
3,558
Interesting -- you guys are more educated than me on the Kickstarter topic. For some reason I figured Steam would just take their usual cut from KS orders. Good to know they give devs a financial break on keys, although losing those good reviews is still a significant non-monetary cost.
 

MRY

Wormwood Studios
Developer
Joined
Aug 15, 2012
Messages
5,703
Location
California
Steam is apparently (I have this only one second-hand from WEG, since I don't deal with them directly) extremely generous with giving out keys. You basically say, "I want X keys" and they hand them over. I assume they figure that the lost sales in bundles, KS, etc. are trivial in the grand scheme of things, and goodwill is worth more.
 

Zanzoken

Arcane
Joined
Dec 16, 2014
Messages
3,558
More thoughts on the point I think I was trying to make about Kickstarter --

Until you have released a game, you are not a real game dev, right? I have dicked around in RPGMaker for a couple hundred hours, but that doesn't make me a developer. So even if I have a cool idea, and can put together an awesome pitch on KS, and can get funded -- I'm still not a game dev until I release an actual game.

Nonetheless, if I went on KS and got $100k in financing for my first game, there would probably be a temptation to start feeling like a real game dev. And paying myself like a real game dev. But in reality, I am still just a hobbyist, and if all that KS money is gone by the time I release -- or even worse, prior to -- then I am now dependent on either my game being a huge hit, or I have to finance again.

The alternative is to build your studio off sweat equity, then once your first game ships, you start building real equity (i.e. actually worth something).

Maybe that is a silly way to think about it though, idk.
 

DavidBVal

4 Dimension Games
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Actually, unless I misunderstand their terms, you can even produce and sell keys on your own openly, not just kickstarter/prerelease stuff.
 

Vault Dweller

Commissar, Red Star Studio
Developer
Joined
Jan 7, 2003
Messages
28,024
Steam is apparently (I have this only one second-hand from WEG, since I don't deal with them directly) extremely generous with giving out keys. You basically say, "I want X keys" and they hand them over. I assume they figure that the lost sales in bundles, KS, etc. are trivial in the grand scheme of things, and goodwill is worth more.
Not to mention it attracts more people to Steam. Today you're redeeming your key, tomorrow you're a paying customer.

Nonetheless, if I went on KS and got $100k in financing for my first game, there would probably be a temptation to start feeling like a real game dev. And paying myself like a real game dev. But in reality, I am still just a hobbyist, and if all that KS money is gone by the time I release -- or even worse, prior to -- then I am now dependent on either my game being a huge hit, or I have to finance again.
It goes without saying that people who don't have any experience managing projects and budgets would be more likely to make mistakes and mismanage both. There's been quite a few KS post postmortems illustrating this principle, like spending most KS money on producing and shipping physical rewards, or hiring too many people, or paying contractors in advance and never hearing from them again.
 

Vault Dweller

Commissar, Red Star Studio
Developer
Joined
Jan 7, 2003
Messages
28,024
I don't think that's the case. Without proper exposure, a new game is lost in the sea of other games on Steam. Since DR had zero media coverage and very little coverage on RPG forums (compared to AoD), the only exposure it had was via AoD.
 

Galdred

Studio Draconis
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Middle Empire
Steve gets a Kidney but I don't even get a tag.
I don't think that's the case. Without proper exposure, a new game is lost in the sea of other games on Steam. Since DR had zero media coverage and very little coverage on RPG forums (compared to AoD), the only exposure it had was via AoD.
But do you think marketing it as a spin-off reduced its appeal?
How did you try to reach players that had no interest in AoD but were interested in tactical RPG?
 

DavidBVal

4 Dimension Games
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The key reason for me is mentioned by VD in the article:

The obvious conclusion is that a strong seller (relatively speaking) has to be a “full-scale” game, whether choice-driven or strictly tactical. Anything else would have a very limited appeal by default.

In my case as a player, I absolutely loved AoD combat 11/10, etc. But my gaming time is limited. I must select what few games to play each year and will likely choose "full" RPGs only. If I played 20+ games per year, then I'd play more "lite" spin-offs or dabble into other genres.

Anyways, I think selling 30K copies is a huge success.
 
Self-Ejected

Davaris

Self-Ejected
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Idiocracy
I've watched Indie devs try to make a game they didn't care about, to get them the money to work on the game they really wanted to make, but it didn't work out. I assume because they didn't have the interest in that type of game, to be able to make something fans of that genre would care about.

If it was me I would figure out how to make the games I wanted to make faster. Take a hard look at what is taking so long and consider the alternatives, but I 'm no game dev businessman, so whatever.
 

Vault Dweller

Commissar, Red Star Studio
Developer
Joined
Jan 7, 2003
Messages
28,024
The key reason for me is mentioned by VD in the article:

The obvious conclusion is that a strong seller (relatively speaking) has to be a “full-scale” game, whether choice-driven or strictly tactical. Anything else would have a very limited appeal by default.
Pretty much. The main problem with spin-offs is that they aren't that interesting to the media or non-hardcore RPG forums. How do you review it? "It's a game that uses the character and combat system I told you about last year"? There should be some kind of hook, always.
 

Mustawd

Guest
Vault Dweller , being in marketing in your past life I have been wanting to ask you a few questions now that you have released a pair of games.

1. You said you hired a marketing firm to help you with AoD. Was this purely advertising advice/help, or also overall consulting on helping identify your audience and its size? In other words, many games have issues with trying to identify who their customers are or will be. Was the marketing firm you hired used for this or did IT do this itself in a way? (I.e. Intuitive seeing that it's a very different rpg.)


2. Unrelated to IT games in general, but coming from a finance background, I'm very familiar how important sales forecasts are to financial models. This method is generally looked down uppn as "bean counters making decisions on the future profitability of a game". What are your thoughts on this? Personally, I tend to think it depends on how good the sales/marketing team is in knowing its customer base. On the other hand, this method cannot in and of itself, capture viral and original games (think goat simulator, undertale, minecraft, etc).
 

Vault Dweller

Commissar, Red Star Studio
Developer
Joined
Jan 7, 2003
Messages
28,024
1. You said you hired a marketing firm to help you woth AoD. Was this purely advertising advice/help, or also overall consulting on helping identify your audience and its size? In other words, many games have issues with trying to identify who their customers are or will be. Was the marketing firm you hird used for this or did IT do this itself in a way? (I.e. Intuitive seeing that it's a very dofferent rpg.)
I strongly believe that you should make games you're really passionate about (to produce the best results) without worrying about the audience. Our customer base are people who like the same shit we do. There, I've just identified the bastards. See how easy it is when you don't give a fuck?

We hired a marketing firm that had established contacts with the media, which increased the chance of getting through to sites and magazines, nothing more. These days that's something worth paying for.

2. Unrelated to IT games in general, but coming from a finance background, I'm very familiar how important sales forecasts are to financial forecasts. This method is generally looked down uppn as "bean countera making decisions on the future profitability of a game". What are your thoughts on this? Personally, I tend to think it depends on how good the sales/marketing team is in knowong its customer base. On the other hand, this method cannot in and of itself, capture viral and original games (think goat simulator, undertale, minecraft, etc).
I assume it's applicable on a much larger scale, like figuring out how profitable the next Elder Scrolls game might be and what the leading trends are (like town crafting for Fallout 4). What's interesting though is that AoD and Underrail sold roughly the same number of copies, even though the Codex vote was split 50/50. So maybe there is a scientific method that would allow you to narrow it down and make accurate forecasts, but it's not my area of expertise.
 

Momock

Augur
Joined
Sep 26, 2014
Messages
644
Change the names why? Because playing as Tough Bastard instead of Murderous Psychopath was so humiliating? There is a reason why games keep getting easier, why Hard became the new Normal and it has nothing to do with the naming conventions.
Oh, my bad. I assumed that the names of the difficulty modes were the ones from the phrase I quoted (easy and hard).
 

YES!

Hi, I'm Roqua
Dumbfuck
Joined
Feb 26, 2017
Messages
2,088
Forecasting only works well with lots of accurate data and limited variables. And people get confused with real financial forecasting and forecasting with make believe marketing gibberish with not one accurate or real datum. Finance and marketing are polar opposites. In Finance the value of something is exactly the last price it was sold for, in marketing they use make believe magic to guess what someone is willing to pay for it. One is based on science and calculus, the other is made up voodoo that only works on weak minded monkey retards.

VD, you can gather some data on your own. I'm sure the super smart folks here at the codex would be willing to put up numerous polls for you in the news section. You can find out why people bought or didn't buy DR, at what price the people who bought it would have paid, how many buyers would have waited for a sale if it was sold at $20 on release, etc. Then you can compare the results with your actual data and you should be able to draw some clear information from the mostly noise, granted the weights will be really shoddy - but free data is free data. You'll need general gaming polling data and that is where the codex shines.

Posting on ITS or your subforum here isn't going to net the variety posting on the news section would. The codex is a good polling place since you have your core rpg fans as a small percentage mixed with all the fake rpg loving console retards that do buy hipster PC games like Pyre and Undertale and Stardew Valley. Posting on the codex news is like posting on any of the major gaming forums but with a smaller population with the addition of having a small percentage of people who actually like rpgs.
 

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