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Which one of the RPG renaissance developers will survive the longest?

Read the title

  • HBS

    Votes: 10 6.2%
  • InXile

    Votes: 2 1.2%
  • Larian

    Votes: 94 58.0%
  • Obsidian

    Votes: 56 34.6%

  • Total voters
    162

Fairfax

Arcane
Joined
Jun 17, 2015
Messages
3,518
Feargus won't have the chance the run Obsidian into the ground because the company will be sold before that.

I'm not so sure about that. He wants money, and a 200-head studio chronically teetering on the edge of oblivion isn't a particularly attractive investment prospect. Who'd be crazy enough to pay serious money for it?
Obsidian is not an attractive purchase now, but Feargus is hoping the new IP will be a hit, and that their (and Paradox's) attempts to improve their brand will do wonders. What I meant is that even if that doesn't happen, the partners will sell the company for whatever it's worth rather than deal with another 2012 situation (or worse, go bankrupt). As for the 200 employees, a new buyer would naturally choose who to keep.

The partners have their asses covered either way, though. The PoE IP is owned by a separate company, so even if Obsidian itself goes under, the partners can sell/license the IP and make money afterwards. I imagine it'll be the same thing with the new one.
 

Xeon

Augur
Joined
Apr 9, 2013
Messages
1,858
Damn, even after the very successful DOS, Larian was still struggling? that's pretty crazy.

How much is the PoE IP actually is worth, I can't imagine surpassing 5 or 10mil at max, just feels generic.
 

Xeon

Augur
Joined
Apr 9, 2013
Messages
1,858
Yeah, that's what I thought too but it because of your post at:
Both D:OS and its sequel were "if this fails, we close up" projects. We'll find out if he'll stop doing that with the next one.
I thought if DOS2 failed they will have gone bankrupt or something since I heard they were almost bankrupt at DOS1. Sorry for the misunderstanding and thanks.
 

undecaf

Arcane
Patron
Joined
Jun 4, 2010
Messages
3,517
Shadorwun: Hong Kong Divinity: Original Sin 2
Is it still Larian's plan to start producing a game every 1.5 years with 3 year dev cycle per studio (or how did they say it'd go...)?
 

Roguey

Codex Staff
Staff Member
Sawyerite
Joined
May 29, 2010
Messages
35,656
I thought if DOS2 failed they will have gone bankrupt or something since I heard they were almost bankrupt at DOS1. Sorry for the misunderstanding and thanks.

They would have, because Swen spent that much money on it. He wants to have the budget to make that one big RPG to dwarf them all asap, and you have to spend money to make money.
 

adrix89

Arbiter
Joined
Dec 27, 2014
Messages
700
Location
Why are there so many of my country here?
HBS is doing Battletech and I don't see how they will screw that up. So they will probably continue to float.

Obisdian know how to whore themselves out, especially when they are needed to inject new life into a corpse of sequel fatigue. I don't think they will be bought out, they are more valuable as whores.

Larian is in the best shape, I think they will go more mainstream and eat Biowares lunch. They have the most potential for success even if they might fall of the cliff.
 

fantadomat

Arcane
Edgy Vatnik Wumao
Joined
Jun 2, 2017
Messages
37,087
Location
Bulgaria
I can't see HBS's Battletech being a success...sadly. Don't see many people dying for a turn based isometric mech game.
 

LESS T_T

Arcane
Joined
Oct 5, 2012
Messages
13,582
Codex 2014
More importantly, who's even buying studios anymore? EA has Bioware, Sony has enough of in-house studios as it is, Activision has Blizzard, Zenimax has Bethesda, Paradox are too thin to buy and run 200 people studio in California, and Microsoft under new leadership have slowed down their spendy ways. I'm sure Feargus and rest of owners would sell without blinking an eye, and who could blame them, they'd get to retire before 50 and have a cozy retirement. But I don't see any potential buyers.

Heh, ironically someone is, again, in the mood of acquiring studios: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...o-game-investment-as-focus-shifts-to-software

Microsoft Shifts to Make More of Its Own Video Game Software
Company will open new game studios or acquire them, Xbox chief Spencer says


As Microsoft Corp. begins selling a new Xbox console, the focus of its video-game unit is shifting toward software and services.

The company plans to increase investment in developing in-house video games, including starting or acquiring studios to do so, Xbox chief Phil Spencer said in an interview last week. That’s an about-face from its approach the past several years, during which Microsoft has shuttered studios, cancelled games, and faced criticism at an industry conference from gamers for its lack of hot first-party titles.

“We need to grow, and I look forward to doing that,” Spencer said. “Our ability to go create content has to be one of our strengths. We haven’t always invested at the same level. We’ve gone through ups and downs in the investment.” Microsoft on Tuesday will start selling the Xbox One X, a high-end console targeted at hard-core gamers.

Historically some of Microsoft’s biggest sellers for Xbox have been games the company published itself, including the “Halo” and “Gears of War” franchises, but in recent years it has scaled back some in-house development, said Spencer, a 30-year Microsoft veteran who has spent the morning sipping tea from a “Gears of War” pint glass. A year ago, Microsoft shut down two studios, Lionhead in the U.K. and Press Play in Denmark.

The renewed investment marks an increasing focus on the Xbox business as a whole, while just a few years ago Microsoft viewed the unit as a sideline. In September, Spencer was promoted to report directly to Chief Executive Officer Satya Nadella and now sits on the senior leadership team. Restoring gaming to the forefront at Microsoft required winning over Nadella and the board – initially to get them to agree to acquire cult favorite Minecraft in September 2014 , and more recently to change directors’ mindset about gaming overall, Spencer said.

[...]
 
Joined
Sep 16, 2017
Messages
41
If I were to hazard an estimation (regardless of the inherent unpredictability of these postulations) my guess would be Harebrained Schemes.

Their ability to release projects at manageable budgets consistently regardless of reception (Necropolis) and then move on to a relatively higher budgeted upcoming release with BattleTech shows they have enough potential to steadily grow and prosper. Being around for only slightly more than half a decade puts them in the opportunistic position of meaningful expansion.

While Larian's success as of late with the Original Sin games is certainly a boon, they have been around for quite some time. And with Original Sin 2 being rather expensive and ambitious even for them (and other isometric rpg's for that matter) this unfortunately could lead to running the risk of being too ambitious or stubborn with future releases.

Obsidian is similar in many ways to Larian. They have also had a string of recent successes (Pillars of Eternity, POE II: Deadfire funding) but also an under-performer (Tyranny) and even outright cancellation (Xbox One exclusive Stormlands) and abandonment (Armored Warfare). This is to say nothing of the fact that before the Kickstarter for POE Obsidian was potentially going to close down for good. And then there is the matter of Chris Avellone leaving, but that's a matter I have not fully researched. They have enough ambition and long term experience that can (and to some extent has) like all companies come back to haunt them in some way, regardless of the quality of their games.

As for InXile; between Brian Fargo mentioning awhile back his contemplation of retirement from the company (unsteady leadership), and the eventual release, fallout and weak (compared to Wasteland 2) sales of Torment: Tides of Numenera, unless Wasteland 3 and The Bard's Tale IV are solid or major financial successes, and if the company can find steady internal ground, I'm very worried in particular for their immediate future the most.
 

Xeon

Augur
Joined
Apr 9, 2013
Messages
1,858
Yeah, don't think I liked anything of his in recent time, last thing I liked was Dead Money in FNV. Tho I heard people say companions I think in Prey are pretty good or something, I mostly only play RPGs so I haven't played it.
 

Jimmious

Arcane
Patron
Joined
May 18, 2015
Messages
5,132
Steve gets a Kidney but I don't even get a tag.
I can't see HBS's Battletech being a success...sadly. Don't see many people dying for a turn based isometric mech game.

Especially after the various scandals and delays that have plagued it.

I dunno about "scandals" but I actually believe that it's the perfect period to release a GOOD turn based Battletech game since turn-based iso games are on a continuous "rise" due to XCOM1+2 and even D:OS2* to some extent

*Since we're also talking about Larian's success, it's crazy how popular D:OS2 has become by the way, I've heard people that would never play tb games praising it
 

Spectacle

Arcane
Patron
Joined
May 25, 2006
Messages
8,363
Both inXile and HBS started off as showelware developers and can probably go back to doing that if their RPGs stopp selling. The companies would survive but not as RPG developers.

Fergus probably has the business skills to keep Obsidian going indefinitely, but he also seems eager to sell so it's hard to say how long Obsidian will be around.

Swen is perhaps a bit too ambitious for Larian's good. The higher you climb the harder you'll fall.


Unfortunately it's not unlikely that all 4 devs could essentially be gone in 5-10 years. Better enjoy them RPGs while they last.
 

fantadomat

Arcane
Edgy Vatnik Wumao
Joined
Jun 2, 2017
Messages
37,087
Location
Bulgaria
Both inXile and HBS started off as showelware developers and can probably go back to doing that if their RPGs stopp selling. The companies would survive but not as RPG developers.

Fergus probably has the business skills to keep Obsidian going indefinitely, but he also seems eager to sell so it's hard to say how long Obsidian will be around.

Swen is perhaps a bit too ambitious for Larian's good. The higher you climb the harder you'll fall.


Unfortunately it's not unlikely that all 4 devs could essentially be gone in 5-10 years. Better enjoy them RPGs while they last.
The difference is that HBS made two great games,while inxile is still pushing showelware.
There always be good rpgs,when someone falls another rises.Also there is a ton of good old rpgs to be played/replayed. :) Oh and most likely there will be a world war in the next decade,we will be able to play the always offline rpg called Fallout.
 

NotAGolfer

Arcane
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Joined
Dec 1, 2013
Messages
2,527
Location
Land of Bier and Bratwurst
Divinity: Original Sin 2
Piranha Bytes.

Elex will give them strength to fight noobs, hipsters and American journalists.
Strength, sure. But they also need either constitution or dexterity or else they won't be able to wield weapons that pierce through these absurdly high physical damage thresholds...
You have to remember, if you are not a filthy casual then everything is out there to kill you. Including hipsters, especially hipsters.

That reminds me, why on earth is Steam still putting that beyond retarded RPS review directly in the news for the game?
"In its opening hours Elex finds new ways to be terrible."
Great advertisement there, guys. But I guess that shit only shows up there after you bought the game. Still, it's the only review mentioned there so wtf?
 
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Kyl Von Kull

The Night Tripper
Patron
Joined
Jun 15, 2017
Messages
3,152
Location
Jamrock District
Steve gets a Kidney but I don't even get a tag.
Maybe I’m just buying into the Cain/Boyarsky hype, but I feel like if the new undisclosed project Indiana does well (and I think it will—I have confidence in the troika guys as long as anyone else is handling the relationship with the publisher, even Feargus), then Obsidian will be in very very good long-term shape. Does anyone here know who at Obsidian might be amenable to accepting a bribe in exchange for breaking their NDA?

So as long as Feargus doesn’t sell I think they’ll still be around.

Larian might have even more staying power, in part from D:OS2, but mainly because they’re Belgian and these European countries love to subsidize their national champions in every industry. Is Div2 Ego Draconis any good?

Agree with all who say inXile looks the most endangered. That said, Fargo must have some weird perk where he becomes a decent businessman when his back is against the wall. Maybe BT4 will sell enough to keep the lights on if Fargo’s learned anything from his last two titles. After all, WL2 had pretty good combat but the story and writing were all over the place, TTON had barely any gameplay but it was a good if wordy CYOA or short story/novella collection (they would have made a lot more money publishing it as a series of novels collectively written by MCA, Rothfuss, Monte Cook and Colin McComb—McComb’s purple prose would’ve been much more palatable in book form). If Fargo can combine the best of both and cut the worst of both then BT4 will be good. Even if it’s bad, I bet he pours in enough of his own money to get Wasteland 3 out.

I find HBS’s games enjoyable but very underwhelming. Given their lack of ambition—battletech aside—I doubt they’ll get into trouble (the battletech lawsuit is nonsense and if it’s not dismissed, I’m sure the anime trademark trolls will settle for a pittance).

Agree wholeheartedly with cvv and NotAGolfer about those deutche ubermenschen at Piranha Bytes.
 
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