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Rat Diplomacy 1: The Great Betrayal, “Et tu, sqeecoo?”

Lizzurd

Cipher
Joined
Jan 11, 2015
Messages
566
The song for this (still incoming on forum) turn!

 

sqeecoo

Arcane
Joined
Dec 13, 2006
Messages
2,620
Turn 8, Drama and DEATH!

image.png


Russia is DEAD! Attacks from Germany, Turkey and me have finished him off this turn. Truly a sad day. Lizzurd, you played well and made good, bold moves. Can't win 'em all. Hope we see you in the next game :)

I don't think Russia made any major mistakes this game and actually had a pretty incredible comeback when he re-allied with Turkey who he had backstabbed the previous turn - it was more that Germany was gunning from him from the start because he wasn't having any pressure from France or England, and Russia exposed itself with the bold but dangerous turn 2 attack on Turkey.


Elsewhere, England holds on, and even gets a build from taking Rome! Conquest of England will happen eventually without German intervention, but England can hold a while yet and has a chance of surviving even with his home centers gone with that valuable fleet in the Med who everyone there will want as an ally.

In the south-east, Turkey betrays Italy and supports me (Austria) into Budapest and into Greece. With Rome taken, Italy is kinda screwed at the moment, despite that successful defense of Venice. But you never know! At least one documented game ended in a solo victory for a player who subbed in for a Germany reduced to a single army.


Just for fun, let me reveal what happened in Venice/Trieste against Italy from my perspective:

My choice was whether use my army in Ty to attack Trieste (with support) or go to Venice.
If Italy moves to Venice, he won't capture Trieste. Unless I attack Venice and bounce him off, keeping him in Trieste to capture it - like you can see happening above. On the other hand, he could do something useful with the Trieste army (like support Bud to Serbia or attack himself) and then I'd feel like an idiot for not taking Ven when I could. Note that taking Ven also prevents him from building there if he leaves it empty, had he gotten a build this turn.

Also note that his army in Trieste is very exposed - Germany, openly allied, can cut potential support to Tri from Bud, and I could take Tri with support from Tyr and Vie. Nothing he can do about it. So I'm inclined to think the will move somewhere. Either Ven or as part of an attack to Ser or Vie. However, if he grabs Serbia or something I won't actually lose Tri even if I don't move in anything there (remember, provinces are captured at the end of this turn), so moving Tyr-Tri is actually a waste of two moves (move from Tyr and support from another army) if he grabs another of my provinces like Serbia. So if he is attacking one of my other provinces it would be much better to move to Ven.

There's also the interplay with my (and other) units and questions like who I'd support an attack into Trieste with, how likely that support is to be cut, am I defending the other provinces under threat, etc. The rules of the game are simple, but the tactical situation can get quite complex even with low numbers of units. It often ends up being guesswork, but it's "fair" guesswork in the sense that there is no dice involved - you just have to out-guess your opponent.

Simply put, tactically my decision to move to Ven was based on my assumption that Italy is likely to try to attack something from Tri given that his position there is untenable, and on the fact that wasting a unit's move and one more's support just to move to a spot that will stay mine if Italy successfully takes something else seemed inefficient.

My decision was complicated by the diplomatic situation, of course. Turkey had betrayed me two turns ago, but now offers alliance against Italy who had betrayed me last turn - I happily accept, but understand that he may just be tricking me into finding out my moves and then majorly fucking me up. But my situation last turn was dire (two home centers lost, at war with Italy, Turkey, and Russia) so I decide to act as if Turkey will do what he will say. Could have been the final nail in my coffin, but you don't always have a conservative play to make other than "make your death a bit slower", and I don't care for those :)

Still, I don't want Turkey to know ALL my moves, to I tell him I'll be attacking Trieste. I will, however, be attacking Venice, since if Turkey stays allied with Italy, betraying me, Trieste is sure to take an active role in their attacks on me, which means Ven will be empty and I at least get that. If, however, Turkey doesn't betray me, I'll get some territory in Greece and a bounce in Ven is not so bad.

Anyway, as the turn timer nears, Turkey (who is betraying Italy this turn but is still ostensibly allied to him) tells me he has info that Italy will move back to Ven. He is telling the truth, but since he is my good RL friend whom I've known a long time, I don't trust him at all. I in fact assume he will give Italy good info on my moves and then pretend it was Italy lying to him - when ganging up on someone, it's always nice to have your ally do worse :)

So I tell Turkey "Cool! Then I won't move to Ven!" and then move to Ven. And make a wrong guess and lose a province I didn't need to lose :) But hey, it was a calculated risk, mostly based on the fact that if Turkey was betraying me (instead of Italy) I'd still make some gains by taking Ven.


So there, that gives you an idea of all the things considering just one move can involve :)
 

Dayyālu

Arcane
Joined
Jul 1, 2012
Messages
4,480
Location
Shaper Crypt
Sqeecoo, you type too much. :lol:

Just for fun, let me reveal what happened in Venice/Trieste against Italy from my perspective:

My choice was whether use my army in Ty to attack Trieste (with support) or go to Venice.
If Italy moves to Venice, he won't capture Trieste. Unless I attack Venice and bounce him off, keeping him in Trieste to capture it - like you can see happening above. On the other hand, he could do something useful with the Trieste army (like support Bud to Serbia or attack himself) and then I'd feel like an idiot for not taking Ven when I could. Note that taking Ven also prevents him from building there if he leaves it empty, had he gotten a build this turn.

Also note that his army in Trieste is very exposed - Germany, openly allied, can cut potential support to Tri from Bud, and I could take Tri with support from Tyr and Vie. Nothing he can do about it. So I'm inclined to think the will move somewhere. Either Ven or as part of an attack to Ser or Vie. However, if he grabs Serbia or something I won't actually lose Tri even if I don't move in anything there (remember, provinces are captured at the end of this turn), so moving Tyr-Tri is actually a waste of two moves (move from Tyr and support from another army) if he grabs another of my provinces like Serbia. So if he is attacking one of my other provinces it would be much better to move to Ven.

There's also the interplay with my (and other) units and questions like who I'd support an attack into Trieste with, how likely that support is to be cut, am I defending the other provinces under threat, etc. The rules of the game are simple, but the tactical situation can get quite complex even with low numbers of units. It often ends up being guesswork, but it's "fair" guesswork in the sense that there is no dice involved - you just have to out-guess your opponent.

Simply put, tactically my decision to move to Ven was based on my assumption that Italy is likely to try to attack something from Tri given that his position there is untenable, and on the fact that wasting a unit's move and one more's support just to move to a spot that will stay mine if Italy successfully takes something else seemed inefficient.

My decision was complicated by the diplomatic situation, of course. Turkey had betrayed me two turns ago, but now offers alliance against Italy who had betrayed me last turn - I happily accept, but understand that he may just be tricking me into finding out my moves and then majorly fucking me up. But my situation last turn was dire (two home centers lost, at war with Italy, Turkey, and Russia) so I decide to act as if Turkey will do what he will say. Could have been the final nail in my coffin, but you don't always have a conservative play to make other than "make your death a bit slower", and I don't care for those :)

Still, I don't want Turkey to know ALL my moves, to I tell him I'll be attacking Trieste. I will, however, be attacking Venice, since if Turkey stays allied with Italy, betraying me, Trieste is sure to take an active role in their attacks on me, which means Ven will be empty and I at least get that. If, however, Turkey doesn't betray me, I'll get some territory in Greece and a bounce in Ven is not so bad.

Anyway, as the turn timer nears, Turkey (who is betraying Italy this turn but is still ostensibly allied to him) tells me he has info that Italy will move back to Ven. He is telling the truth, but since he is my good RL friend whom I've known a long time, I don't trust him at all. I in fact assume he will give Italy good info on my moves and then pretend it was Italy lying to him - when ganging up on someone, it's always nice to have your ally do worse :)

So I tell Turkey "Cool! Then I won't move to Ven!" and then move to Ven. And make a wrong guess and lose a province I didn't need to lose :) But hey, it was a calculated risk, mostly based on the fact that if Turkey was betraying me (instead of Italy) I'd still make some gains by taking Ven.


So there, that gives you an idea of all the things considering just one move can involve :)

Thinking on my side:

"Position untenable. Bounce will be useful nonetheless. Retreat to Ven."
 

Eadee

Scholar
Joined
Apr 27, 2016
Messages
360
Location
Arrakis
Spring 1905 - TURN 8 again! (we still round to the closest four, right?)

game-history-117599-8-R.png

Sqeecoo is still a bit short on time, so I fill in for this turn:

Providing the least amount of betrayal per turn like Austria wants it, German forces invade Warsaw, threatening Moscow and defenseless Vienna.

Austria tried to move to Warsaw itself and failed, Austrian troops are now stuck in the Russian homeland with the option of taking over Sevastopol this fall.

There are two more clashes of Austrian armies:
Vienna, conquers Trieste and beats the Italian army that tried a conquest in the opposite direction!
The armies of Greece and Albany also clash against each other, but it ends in a simple bounce.

Meanwhile sneaky Italy tried to get into Smyrna and interrupts the chain of supply of Turkey who did not do much other than to needlessly turtle a bit in case of a stab. I guess that comes from traumatic expieriences with Sqeecoo in earlier games :D

England retreats from rome, but now has a 50:50 chance to get Tunis or Naples since Italy can only defend one. If England manages to keep Austria from catching rome England might stay at same strength at the end of the year.
However, its looking worse in the British homeland. The forces of France advance mercyless and are willing to end this conquest asap.

Both England and France might be interested in the support Germany could provide since it moved to the North Sea!


To put it all in a nutshell:
Italy and England both are having a hard time and it doesn't seem likely they can form an alliance to help each other out.

Austria and Turkey stay at same power. But while we have a Turkey turtle that has stable borders, Austria looses in the east while expanding west what seems like another migration period, from a distance.

Finally, France and Germany manage to expand. France with a couple of promising turns to come, but within reasonable limits. And Germany having only one secure conquest in the upcoming turns while risking to become viewed as a global threat by everyone.
 
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sqeecoo

Arcane
Joined
Dec 13, 2006
Messages
2,620
The Wheel turns, and now it turns to turn 10.

image.png


Germany continues his brutal conquest of the east, dislodging the benevolent Austrian peacekeeping forces in Moscow but also attacking Turkish Rumania! Truly no-one is safe from German aggression, as even England feels the stab of German prows in Endinburgh. With France advancing into England as well, the Home Isles are now home only to beer-drinking Bavarian barbarians and faggoty French flounces. Italy is near death as well, as Turkey finally sails out from his home territory for the first time in the game and France advances into the Med sea.

It's an interesting situation. Germany is dangerously strong but unlikely to make game-winning headway in any direction unless the other players get bored/greedy and squabble between themselves. We may be in for a bit of a stalemate - or someone may decide to make a pact with the devil and ally with Germany, risking giving him the solo win but aiming for big gains of his own to put himself into the running for victory! Alternatively, France could use Germany as a boogeyman to distract the others while slowly building an overwhelming advantage in the Med and cruising, literally, to victory with his fleets. Well, not literally.

A bit of explanation: at 11 centers, Germany is still a ways from victory. However, when a nation gets to that size (especially if there are still plenty of other players on the board that might not cooperate well), it's at the point where it could make a simultaneous backstab or two and push to victory before the other players can organize a joint defense. I'm not saying Germany could do that this instant, but for example if France and I were to get entangled in a complex war in Italy and pull forces from our borders with Germany leaving them half-open, then Germany could probably do a blitz to 18 centers after surprise-attacking us both. France is in a similar position and power really, especially if/when he gets some more fleets into the Med. It will be an interesting lategame!
 
Unwanted

Kalin

Unwanted
Dumbfuck Zionist Agent
Joined
Sep 29, 2010
Messages
1,868,264
Location
Al Scandiya
Holy fugg this game is intense!

Good thing I'm not a betting man because I thought Russia would take this. :lol:
 

sqeecoo

Arcane
Joined
Dec 13, 2006
Messages
2,620
Turn 11!

image.png


The conquest of Englad is ended. A sad day for the English. Should I start writing these in French? Non. (that's all the French I know)

From what I could gather, England played well tactically but was kinda quiet in diplomacy (based on what Germany told me). Especially in desperate situations, you gotta diplo like crazy to survive :) Well played otherwise July, especially that crazy/beautiful dash to Rome! I hope you join us for the next one!

Germany is now terrifyingly large, and France is not much weaker. Austria and Turkey are natural enemies, and Germany offers me a joint attack on Turkey with the promise that I will gain most of the centers, bringing me up to par with him. A generous offer worth considering - however, I feel that going in that direction would mean that Germany would at least have one (probably multiple) shot at backstabbing me and getting victory, and once outlying territories were taken breaching Turkey proper would have been very very hard with his naval dominance (something Germany couldn't help with).

So I opted to betray Germany (satisfying our betrayal quota for this turn) and push towards him with Turkey. Which, in the end, is pretty ineffective - he is so strong and his central position makes his reinforcemnts appear practically on the front. I have little to no hope of advancing, even with France's support (unless he wins the naval war). Well, I knew it would be like that. It was, as I said last turn, a choice between a pact with the devil or a stalmated defense/attack. We shall see how this develops - at least I have a reasonable trust in Turkey not to betray me while the threat of Germany exists.

I'm honestly not sure where the game will go from here - we are likely in for a longer one now. A lot hinges on France, but he seems to be pushing hard into the Med and not interested in attacking Germany. Could this end up in a four-way draw? I hope not! Also, France's strange fixation with Gascony continues.

In general, this is how many Diplomacy games end up after a few players have been eliminated. If you want to win, it's not unwise to try to keep things in a state of flux, and as many players alive as possible. Once battle lines have been organized, it's very hard to break through. It would have definitely been in Germany's (and Frances, really) interest for me and Turkey to start fighting, in which case they could use the changing fortunes of war to gain an opportunity to stab the two of us and each-other for a bliz to victory. Now, that is less likely.

As I said, it's very hard to win in Diplomacy :)
 
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sqeecoo

Arcane
Joined
Dec 13, 2006
Messages
2,620
Hey guys, sorry for the long pause. I was waiting for a betrayal to happen, for I felt ashamed there haven't been any for two turns!

So, turns 12, 13, and 14!

image.png


Turkey and Austria defend against Germany and push forward into the med, meeting up with France. At this point, the diplomatic efforts of Turkey and me are concentrated on getting France to realize the German threat and move against him. Germany offers a joint attack against Turkey, but I still feel that moving against Turkey would leave me exposed for a German backstab, which he could simultaneously do against France as well and probably manage to grab enough territory to win.

Much the same happens on turn 13:

image.png


France grabbing Rome was arranged, but it becomes clear that France has no intention of going against Germany despite making vague assurances that he will. In desperation, Turkey and I decide to go full war with France!

Turn 14:

image.png


Which works, we grab Rome and destroy that fleet! In a great move, however, France attacks us now openly, completely emptying his German border and craftily convoying an army to Tuscany. I didn't expect that, but in retrospect I should have expected Matalarata to go for Florence!

It looks like we are in a 2v2 war now, but with France totally open to Germany's attack, Turkey and I can't risk any territorial gains for Germany. However, we will be hard pressed to fend off France at the same time. We do have fleet superiority at least, but the best we can hope for now is a stalemate on both fronts. We shall see!
 

sqeecoo

Arcane
Joined
Dec 13, 2006
Messages
2,620
I am not a fan of 4-way draws, but I'm definitely not gonna break and attack my ally while we are under assault by an alliance of two stronger players :) So it may well end in a draw! But I hope not. Also, the situation in the med sea is pretty fluid and France has a strong force in Italy, we are not stalemated there.
 

sqeecoo

Arcane
Joined
Dec 13, 2006
Messages
2,620
The wheel turns for the 15th time.

image.png


Turkey and Austria make no headway but lose no ground either - France and Germany played defensive moves on those fronts. But what is this!!! Betrayal?? Who could have predicted that?? It looks like Germany is attacking the totally exposed French North (with smallish forces, however). Or is this a rouse to persuade Austria and Turkey to betray each other? Time will tell.
 

Lizzurd

Cipher
Joined
Jan 11, 2015
Messages
566
I am honestly surprised that Germany and France didn't attack Austria together and didn't captured Tyrolia and Venice. There were very high chances to capture both provinces, or, unless you play not the optimal way, secure at least one province...
 

sqeecoo

Arcane
Joined
Dec 13, 2006
Messages
2,620
Yeah! I was expecting Tyr to fall. I guess they weren't working together as closely as I'd thought?
 

sqeecoo

Arcane
Joined
Dec 13, 2006
Messages
2,620
Turn 16 is come, and there is no way to turn back time.

image.png



In a surprise move, Germany doesn't actually take anything from France! What's going on? I'd say for sure the German attack was a rouse, but the French move to the Norwegian Sea looks like a genuinely aggressive move. Double betrayal? Who knows!

Turkey and I slowly push along the Med sea, but while we may gain a bit more ground there there's absolutely no way we can exit it. Damn I hope we don't get a 4-way stalemate!
 

sqeecoo

Arcane
Joined
Dec 13, 2006
Messages
2,620
Well bros, I've been on vacation lately so I couldn't find the time to post individual updates (because I'm lazy). Sorry!

Anyway, the game has ended, without too much further drama, in a 3-way tie between Germany, Turkey, and Austria.

The final screen:

view_image.png



What happened was that Turkey and I (Austria) made slow headway against France and Germany, with little to no hope of actually breaking through. All the while, Germany tried to get me to betray Turkey, which I wouldn't mind, but would be basically placing my fate in Germany's hands - if he attacked me as I betrayed Turkey, he could probably roll over us (or force us to immediately rebuild our alliance).

In the end, France stalled a couple of times and Turkey and I breached the other alliance's lines, just as Germany finally decided to backstab France due to his stalls (I assume). This is no fault of Matalarata's (playing France). All the Diplomacy Online games I've played at 48h turn settings have tended to degenerate a bit in the lategame. Extensions are needlessly hard to get for Diplomacy Online, and with a game lasting this long, RL usually interferes at some point. Unline Dominions 4, however, even a single stall can be gamebreaking or at least severely unbalancing.

In any case, Kulja (Turkey) and I thought that France stalling gave us an unfair, metagame advantage. Without the stall, Germany probably wouldn't have stabbed France, and they probably could have held against us. Diplomacy is about dirty tricks, sure, but there is no fun or honor in beating an opponent who is not playing.

Since France was now likely to get eliminated, Kulja and I offered Eadee (Germany) a three-way draw as the fairest solution we saw, and he accepted. Thus ends our first Rat Diplomacy game!

Everybody played well, and I hope you all enjoyed yourselves. It was great fun for me anyway, especially the total chaos in the early and midgame :)

I hope more Codex games are to come: if there is interest, I'm happy to stage some more.

Almost ended this with "Best regards, ...". Fuck, I've been writing too many business emails.
 

Eadee

Scholar
Joined
Apr 27, 2016
Messages
360
Location
Arrakis
Its a great game, I love the concept. So give me a notification as soon as you set up another game of Diplomacy :)
 

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